Replies to post #105266 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[denmo83]

Hey NM...

Where does SPX 1135 fit into your 4-cast? Or not?!

[Neutral Man]

As expected we'll get a GAP down this morning, BUT, we'll use said downness to add Long plays with ZERO concern for loss!!

Orders to Open:
BtO, 1920 Jun46 calls at 0.65??
StO, 960 Jun47 puts at 0.85??

Let's see if da-Boz let us get filled, or NOT!?

JunOE Open positions:

BtO, 960 Jun40 puts at 0.85
BtO, 480 Jun40 puts at 0.21
BtO, 960 Jun41 puts at 0.30
BtO, 960 Jun41 puts at 0.28
BtO, 1920 Jun43 puts at 0.75
BtO, 480 Jun44 puts at 1.37
BtO, 1920 Jun44 puts at 0.78
BtO, 480 Jun45 puts at 2.28
BtO, 240 Jun45 puts at 2.15
BtO, 240 Jun45 puts at 1.95
BtO, 1920 Jun45 puts at 0.41
BtO, 480 Jun46 puts at 0.67
BtO, 480 Jun46 puts at 0.67
BtO, 1920 Jun46 puts at 0.55

StO, 960 Jun49 puts at 2.72
StO, 960 Jun48 puts at 2.02

BtO, 1920 Jun46 calls at 1.37
BtO, 960 Jun47 calls at 0.70
BtO, 480 Jun47 calls at 0.67
BtO, 960 Jun47 calls at 0.15
BtO, 480 Jun48 calls at 0.33
BtO, 960 Jun48 calls at 0.35
BtO, 1920 Jun49 calls at 0.12
BtO, 1920 Jun49 calls at 0.13

StO, 240 Jun40 calls at 4.18
StO, 480 Jun40 calls at 4.45
StO, 960 Jun43 calls at 1.60
StO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.58
StO, 480 Jun45 calls at 1.25


Poor-Boy Port (Open Positions)
BtO, 10 Jun4 calls at 0.17 (C)
BtO, 10 Jun5 puts at 1.02 (C)

Poor-Boy YTD numbers:
MayOE, -0.56/ 10 contracts
JunOE, n/a

Total gains for da-Poor-Boy Port against 10 contracts = 0.20
BtO, 10 May15 calls at 0.40, StC at 0.60, .20 gain (FITB)


Total gains for the JunOE = 400.56 against 40 contracts

15Jun10, posts as 10.32 against 40 contracts
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.40, StC at 0.50, .10 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.30, StC at 0.48, .18 gain
StO, 960 Jun47 puts at 1.45, BtC at 1.30, .15 gain

14Jun10, posts as 51.00 against 40 contracts
BtO, 960 Jun46 puts at 0.68, StC at 0.88, .20 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 puts at 0.65, StC at 0.85, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 1.35, BtC at 1.20, .15 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun46 calls at 0.25, StC at 0.52, .27 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 calls at 0.59. StC at 1.13, .54 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 calls at 0.56, StC at 1.13, .57 gain

11Jun10, posts as 60.84 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.10, StC at 1.40, .30 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.05, StC at 1.45, .40 gain
BtO, 960 Jun44 calls at 1.15, StC at 1.50, .35 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 calls at 0.57, StC at 0.95, .38 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 calls at 0.56, StC at 0.95, .39 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 calls at 0.51, StC at 0.95, .44 gain
StO, 960 Jun46 puts at 1.47, BtC at 1.07, .40 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.75, BtC at 1.30, .45 gain

10Jun10, posts as 12.36 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.00, StC at 1.20, .20 gain
BtO, 480 Jun43 calls at 1.70, StC at 1.98, .28 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.95, BtC at 1.60, .35 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 puts at 1.15, StC at 1.25, .10 gain

09Jun10, posts as 12.24 against 40 contracts
BtO, 1920 Jun44 calls at 1.10, StC at 1.20, .10 gain
StO, 960 Jun46 puts at 2.20, BtC at 1.89, .31 gain

08Jun10, posts as 80.76 against 40 contracts
BtO, 1920 Jun45 calls at 0.52, StC at 0.62, .10 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun45 puts at 1.50, StC at 1.57, .07 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 3.20, BtC at 3.05, .15 gain
StO, 480 Jun40 calls at 4.18, BtC 240 at 3.98, .20 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 puts at 1.28, StC at 1.28, .00 gain
BtO, 960 Jun41 puts at 0.23, StC at 0.33, .10 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun42 puts at 0.42, StC at 0.52, .10 gain
BtO, 480 Jun48 puts at 3.03, StC at 4.03, 1.00 gain
StO, 1920 Jun45 calls at 1.00, BtC at 0.60, .40 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 puts at 1.18, StC at 1.48, .30 gain
StO, 240 Jun43 calls at 2.90, BtC at 1.95, .95 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun44 puts at 0.75, StC at 0.95, .20 gain
BtO, 480 Jun45 puts at 1.14, StC at 1.44, .30 gain
BtO, 960 Jun45 puts at 1.17, StC at 1.42, .25 gain

04Jun10, posts as 19.20 against 40 contracts
BtO, 1920 Jun46 puts at 0.87, StC at 1.27, .40 gain

03Jun10, posts as 15.00 against 40 contracts
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 1.35, BtC at 1.22, .13 gain
BtO, 480 Jun47 calls at 0.63, StC at 0.78, .15 gain
BtO, 480 Jun47 calls at 0.63, StC at 0.78, .15 gain
BtO, 480 Jul46 calls at 1.75, StC at 1.95, .20 gain
BtO, 960 Jul46 calls at 1.75, StC 480 at 1.88, .13 gain
BtO, 480 Jun48 calls at 0.19, StC at 0.31, .12 gain
BtO, 480 Jun48 calls at 0.24, StC at 0.31, .07 gain
BtO, 960 Jun47 calls at 0.56, StC at 0.71, .15 gain

02Jun10, posts as 16.08 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Jun46 calls at 0.82, StC at 1.02, .20 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.85, StC at 1.05, .20 gain
BtO, 480 Jun46 calls at 0.82, StC at 0.96, .14 gain
StO, 960 Jun46 puts at 1.55, BtC at 1.40, .15 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.63, BtC at 1.43, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.66, BtC at 1.46, .20 gain

01Jun10, posts as 32.80 against 40 contracts
BtO, 1920 Jun48 calls at 0.20, StC at 0.33, .13 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 1.80, BtC at 1.55, .25 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.27, BtC at 1.07, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.36, BtC at 1.16, .20 gain
BtO, 960 Jun47 calls at 0.43, StC at 0.63, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.40, BtC at 1.25, .15 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.47, BtC at 1.32, .15 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun47 calls at 0.43, StC 960 at 0.58, .15 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.95, StC at 1.04, .09 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.87, StC at 0.97, .10 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 1.56, BtC at 1.46, .10 gain

28May10, posts as 21.54 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Jun48 puts at 3.00, StC at 3.00, 0.00 gain
BtO, 240 Jun48 puts at 2.54, StC at 2.83, .29 gain
BtO, 240 Jun48 puts at 2.41, StC at 2.83, .42 gain
StO, 240 Jun43 calls at 3.22, BtC at 2.97, .25 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 1.85, BtC at 1.70, .15 gain
BtO, 480 Jun46 calls at 0.95, StC at 1.05, .10 gain
BtO, 960 Jun46 calls at 0.83, StC at 1.02, .19 gain
BtO, 1920 Jun46 calls at 0.83, StC 960 at 1.10, .27 gain
BtO, 240 Jun44 calls at 2.21, StC at 2.50, .29 gain

27May10, posts as 25.20 against 40 contracts
BtO, 960 Jun44 calls at 2.00, StC at 2.20, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 3.05, BtC at 2.20, .85 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 2.40, BtC at 1.55, .85 gain

26May10, posts as 9.18 against 40 contracts
BtO, 240 Jun44 calls at 2.15, StC at 2.18, .03 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 2.47, BtC at 2.27, .20 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 2.02, BtC at 1.72, .30 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.75, StC at 2.00, .25 gain

25May10, posts as 22.08 against 40 contracts
BtO, 480 Jun46 calls at 0.67, StC at 0.75, .08 gain
BtO, 480 Jun46 calls at 0.63, StC at 0.74, .11 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.45, StC at 1.55, .10 gain
BtO, 240 Jun45 puts at 2.00, StC at 2.20, .20 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 calls at 1.45, StC 240 at 1.55, .10 gain
BtO, 240 Jun45 puts at 2.20, StC at 2.35, .15 gain
BtO, 960 Jun43 puts at 1.55, StC at 1.70, .15 gain
BtO, 240 Jun44 puts at 1.40, StC at 1.98, .58 gain
BtO, 240 Jun44 puts at 1.35, StC at 1.98, .63 gain
BtO, 480 Jun44 puts at 1.41, StC at 1.98, .57 gain

24May10, posts as 13.26 against 40 contracts
BtO, 960 Jun44 puts at 1.20, StC at 1.38, .18 gain
BtO, 480 Jun43 puts at 0.90, StC at 1.05, .15 gain
StO, 480 Jun43 calls at 2.90, BtC at 2.75, .15 gain
StO, 480 Jun46 puts at 2.00, BtC at 1.86, .14 gain
StO, 480 Jun47 puts at 2.60, BtC at 2.45, .15 gain
StO, 240 Jun45 puts at 1.79, BtC at 1.64, .15 gain
StO, 240 Jun45 puts at 1.80, BtC at 1.64, .16 gain

[Neutral Man]

Buy-Signals, Sell-Signals and da-Boyz, Oh My, LOL!?

The Buy-Signal issued on 10Jun is still in control and with two additional buy-signals issed since we continue to Look upward!

The buy-signal issues on 15Jun was confirmed on 16Jun and the negate number, 46.13, did not even get close to getting tagged 17Jun! Da-Boyz have our attention since they CLOSED above the R2(46.68) AND the long-term break-out/break-down level of 46.64!!

We back-tested the R1(46.68), 17Jun and it held, we should now look to the R3(47.79) today for more clues as to how High we go!?

The S&P500 has finally breached it's respective YTD OE Pivot, 1102.47 and this is cause for celebration for da-Bulls!!

In summary, ALL data points to a NEW YTD High being tagged on this up move and we expect 46.68 to HOLD on a CLOSE-ing basis going forward!?

4cast says, MORE UP!??

11-Jun 44.56 45.54 44.61 45.50
14-Jun 45.91 46.26 45.31 45.49
15-Jun 45.71 46.77 45.79 46.71
16-Jun 46.58 47.35 46.50 46.95
17-Jun 47.16 47.18 46.64 47.05
4cast
18-Jun 47.04 48.14 47.04 47.83


Sorry SHORTS but da-Boyz are gonna stick up your Asskies and Break it off by Friday, oh boy, sigh.............


Buy-Signals:

The Buy-Signal from 05Feb, and the five buy-signals that followed, did NOT get negated until 27Apr! Since then we've had six Buy-Signals and ALL six have been negated!

No, Date, Negate #
1) 05Feb, 42.44
2) 11Feb, 43.12
3) 12Feb, 43.21
4) 25Feb, 44.04
5) 22Mar, 47.32
6) 22Apr, 49.68 (Negated 27Apr)
7) 29Apr, 49.60 (Negated 30Apr)
8) 06May, 45.99 (Negated 07May)
9) 12May, 48.01 (Negated 13May)
10)21May, 44.24 (confirmed 24May)
11)25May, 44.14 Not Confrimed
12)27May, 45.30 (Negated)
13)02Jun, 45.67 (negated 04Jun)
14)10Jun, 44.51 (confirmed 11Jun)
15)11Jun, 44.93 (confirmed 14Jun)
16)15Jun, 46.13 (confirmed 16Jun)

Sell-Signals:

Sell-Signals have definitely dominated the scene since 11Mar and we suspect they'll continute to win out over buy-signals indefitely going forward?

NO, Date, Negate #
1) 11Mar, 48.30
2) 12Mar, 48.31
3) 16Mar, 48.50
4) 18Mar, 48.79
5) 22Mar, 48.88
6) 23Mar, 49.22
7) 25Mar, 48.91
8) 29Mar, 49.19 (Negated 13Apr with a close above!)
9) 14Apr, 50.91 (confirmed with an additional Sell-Signal 15Apr)
10)15Apr, 51.13 (confirmed on 16Apr)
11)27Apr, 50.34 (confirmed on 28Apr)
12)30Apr, 50.22 (confirmed on 03May)
13)04May, 49.40 (confirmed 05May)
14)07May, 46.32 (Negated 10May)
15)13May, 48.81 (confirmed 14May)
16)18May, 47.36 (confirmed 19May)
17)20May, 45.24 (confirmed 21May, negated 27May)
18)01Jun, 46.14 (negated 02Jun)
19)04Jun, 45.99
20)07Jun, 45.16 (confirmed 08Jun)
21)09Jun, 44.70 (negated 10Jun)

Last but defintely NOT Least is the OEPM S/R lines of meaning!

53.35 20.00% R8
52.24 17.50% R7
51.13 15.00% R6
50.02 12.50% R5 (Serious resistance as of 30Apr)
48.91 10.00% R4 (violated 04May, look to the R3 for guidance now)
47.79 7.50% R3 (violated 14May, hasn't been seen since)
46.68 5.00% R2 (violated 18May on a close-ing basis and back-tested 19May)
45.57 2.50% R1 (violated 20May and NOW Serious resistance)

44.46 0.00% YTD OE Pivot (Once thought to be the FINAL Discount wave target, close at 44.35 on 20May and another violation will Open the FLOOD gates to start vilating the Support levels!!??)

43.35 -2.50% S1
42.24 -5.00% S2
41.13 -7.50% S3
40.01 -10.00% S4
38.90 -12.50% S5
37.79 -15.00% S6
36.68 -17.50% S7
35.57 -20.00% S8