Replies to post #97213 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: Prospective partners for ACH-1625 (or IDIX's compounds)

One wildcard in this discussion is MRK. Some knowledgeable people expect Boceprevir to fail in phase-3, either medically (from an excessive rate of anemia) or commercially (by simply not being as good as Telaprevir). If Boceprevir fails and MRK thinks its backup, MK-7009, is not the ticket, MRK could be in the hunt for another PI. Moreover, one would expect MRK to be interested in obtaining a non-PI oral drug to pair with Boceprevir, MK-7009, or an in-licensed PI. IDX184, INHX’s INX-189, and the early-stage compounds from VRUS would seem to fit the bill.

I had initially not considered MRK due to MK-7009. However, it looks like MK-7009 is strictly being tested as a BID drug, so if MRK (and for that matter all of the big pharma companies) is interested in qD dosing then ACH-1625 and IDX320 clearly would appear to be candidates.

I realize it's quite a stretch but I wonder if even VRTX would consider licensing a follow-on 2nd gen/3rd gen PI to Telaprevir to maintain their competitive edge down the road. Presumably that's an emphatic "no" now given that such a deal would make it look like VRTX doesn't have confidence in the longer-tem commercial outlook for Telaprevir.