Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Prospective partners for ACH-1625 (or IDIX’s compounds)

I originally speculated on NVS, GSK, PFE, and GILD as potential partners for ACHN. GILD now has its own PI, which I believe is in Phase 1, so presumably we can remove GILD (unless of course they have doubts about their PI having qD ability).

Of the five companies shown in #msg-51233708, I sense that GILD is the least committed to its own all-oral HCV program insofar as the non-nuke, GS9190 does not give the appearances of being a serious candidate (#msg-46036072). Hence, GILD could conceivably be looking to in-license an HCV drug to pair with GS9256; the in-licensed drug presumably wouldn’t be another PI, however.

I don't understand why GSK doesn't have a bigger presence in the HCV arena. Their only participation appears to be due to their buyout of Genelabs for an NS5A inhibitor that isn't even in the clinic. I don't know if I should take GSK serious at all as a potential partner. They're going to need to do multiple deals (PI, nuke, etc.) to become a player, though I guess that could happen.

Good point. Since GSK has nothing cooking in HCV beyond the preclinical stage, it makes more sense for GSK to license IDIX’s package of IDX184 + IDX320 rather than to assemble an HCV portfolio piecemeal. GSK could conceivably do the latter, but it’s probably not their first option.

Same with NVS and PFE.

Agreed. NVS’ only participation in HCV is via Albuferon, and that’s not saying much.

One wildcard in this discussion is MRK. Some knowledgeable people expect Boceprevir to fail in phase-3, either medically (from an excessive rate of anemia) or commercially (by simply not being as good as Telaprevir). If Boceprevir fails and MRK thinks its backup, MK-7009, is not the ticket, MRK could be in the hunt for another PI. Moreover, one would expect MRK to be interested in obtaining a non-PI oral drug to pair with Boceprevir, MK-7009, or an in-licensed PI. IDX184, INHX’s INX-189, and the early-stage compounds from VRUS would seem to fit the bill.