In learning about the ins and outs of government statistics one quickly gains a new appreciation for the phrase, close enough for government work. <g> The other thing I'm wondering about, do the people that right the press releases have any clue as to what they are writing about. I haven't found any 18 month low in inventory levels. Maybe in crude stocks, but not in over all inventory levels. If the refineries are running efficiently than you are going to have less raw materials (crude oil) and more finished products (gas, jet fuel, heating oil), but the over levels are going to be the same.
And what would be customary government statistics without a survey and guessing. It appears they take a statistical sampling and then guess the rest. So if "George" at company XYZ is sick that week and nobody reports the numbers, they just fudge it.
In January 1975, 1981, and 1983, numerous respondents were
added to surveys affecting stocks reported and stock change
calculations. Stock changes are calculated using new basic
stock levels. Bulk terminal and pipeline stocks of oxygenates
were added beginning in January 1993.
And then there is something called the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve that isn't even included in any of the headline numbers. Later if I have time I'll see if I can't find out what that is and it's current levels.
Includes stocks located in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Excludes
distillate stocks held in the "Northeast Heating Oil Reserve".
---------
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 30, 2002
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.3 million barrels per day during
the week ending August 30, up slightly from the previous week. Increases in
PADD I (East Coast), PADD II (Midwest) and PADD V (West Coast) more than
compensated for declines in PADD III (Gulf Coast) and PADD IV (Rocky Mountains).
Over the last four weeks, crude oil refinery inputs have averaged 15.3 million
barrels per day, or slightly more than was averaged last year at this time.
Despite the increase in refinery inputs, motor gasoline refinery production
dropped last week, while distillate fuel and jet fuel refinery production
increased slightly.
U.S. crude oil imports remained about the same compared to the previous week,
averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Crude oil imports into the East Coast
averaged 1.8 million barrels per day last week, the highest weekly average since
the week ending May 17, 2002. During the most recent four weeks, crude oil
imports have averaged nearly 9.3 million barrels per day, or about 100,000
barrels per day less than during the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending
components) averaged nearly 800,000 barrels per day last week, down from each of
the previous two weeks.
Even with small changes in crude oil refinery inputs and crude oil imports,
reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) fell by 4.6 million barrels last week. At 298.5 million
barrels, they are at the lowest level since the week ending March 16, 2001. Due
to the nature of weekly data, occasionally there are weeks in which there is a
big movement in reported inventories either up or down that are not easily
explained by looking at other components of supply or demand, so this is not too
unusual. Motor gasoline inventories last week dropped by 1.5 million barrels,
while distillate fuel inventories continued a counter-seasonal trend, falling by
2.0 million barrels.
Total product supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million
barrels per day or about 0.3 percent more than the level last year. Motor
gasoline demand has averaged 2.0 percent above last year's level over the last
four weeks, while distillate fuel demand has averaged 2.8 percent below last
year's level. Kerosene-jet fuel demand over the last four weeks was 6.7 percent
below year-ago levels.
The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the
most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data.
Table 1. U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, 4 Weeks Ending 08/30/02
Cumulative
Four Week Averages Daily Averages
Ending 241 Days
Petroleum Supply % ---------------- %
(Thousand Barrels per Day) 08/30/02 08/30/01 Chg 2002 2001 Chg
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (1) ........ E5,892 5,725 2.9 E5,895 5,800 1.6
Net Imports (Incl SPR) (2) ..... 9,226 9,355 -1.4 8,954 9,381 -4.6
Gross Imports (Excl SPR) ..... 9,256 9,383 -1.4 8,952 9,394 -4.7
SPR Imports .................. 0 0 -- 15 12 --
Exports ...................... E30 28 7.1 E13 25 -48.0
SPR Stocks W/D or Added ........ -85 0 -- -130 -13 --
Other Stocks W/D or Added ...... 311 160 -- 66 -94 --
Product Supplied and Losses .... E0 0 -- E0 0 --
Unaccounted-for Crude Oil (3)... -2 19 -- 210 157 --
Crude Oil Input to Refineries... 15,342 15,259 0.5 14,996 15,230 -1.5
Other Supply
Natural Gas Liquids Prod. (6)... E2,336 2,252 3.7 E2,220 2,104 5.5
Other Liquids New Supply ....... E36 84 -57.1 E91 89 2.2
Crude Oil Product Supplied ..... E0 0 0.0 E0 0 0.0
Processing Gain ................ E949 851 11.5 E952 894 6.5
Net Product Imports (4) ........ 1,224 1,219 0.4 1,338 1,731 -22.7
Gross Product Imports (4) .... 2,167 2,239 -3.2 2,257 2,681 -15.8
Product Exports (4) .......... E943 1,020 -7.5 E919 950 -3.3
Prod Stocks W/D or Added (5)(11) 333 488 -- 27 -234 --
Tot Prod Supplied for Domestic.. 20,220 20,153 0.3 19,623 19,815 -1.0
Products Supplied
Finished Motor Gasoline (6) .... 9,129 8,953 2.0 8,833 8,603 2.7
Naphtha-Type Jet Fuel .......... 1 -3 -133.3 -5 0 0.0
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel ......... 1,605 1,720 -6.7 1,596 1,727 -7.6
Distillate Fuel Oil ............ 3,721 3,829 -2.8 3,710 3,913 -5.2
Residual Fuel Oil .............. 652 805 -19.0 664 893 -25.6
Other Oils (7) ................. 5,113 4,849 5.4 4,825 4,679 3.1
Total Products Supplied ........ 20,220 20,153 0.3 19,623 19,815 -1.0
Total Net Imports .............. 10,451 10,574 -1.2 10,292 11,112 -7.4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Petroleum Stocks Percent Chg from
(Million Barrels) 08/30/02 08/23/02 08/30/01 Prev Wk Yr Ago
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crude Oil (Excluding SPR) (8) .. 298.5 303.1 308.3 -1.5 -3.2
Total Motor Gasoline ........... 205.3 206.8 194.4 -0.7 5.6
Reformulated ................ 43.1 43.6 40.9 -1.1 5.4
Oxygenated .................. 0.5 0.4 1.1 25.0 -54.5
Other Finished .............. 115.2 117.6 109.4 -2.0 5.3
Blending Components ......... 46.6 45.2 43.1 3.1 8.1
Naphtha-Type Jet Fuel .......... 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -100.0
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel ......... 38.9 39.3 41.6 -1.0 -6.5
Distillate Fuel Oil (11)........ 129.6 131.6 122.2 -1.5 6.1
0.05% Sulfur and under ...... 72.1 72.6 68.8 -0.7 4.8
Greater than 0.05% Sulfur ... 57.5 59.0 53.4 -2.5 7.7
Residual Fuel Oil .............. 32.1 32.3 35.3 -0.6 -9.1
Unfinished Oils ................ 84.7 85.9 90.6 -1.4 -6.5
Other Oils (9) ................. E218.1 E214.4 213.4 1.7 2.2
Total Stocks (Excluding SPR)(11) 1,007.2 1,013.3 1,005.8 -0.6 0.1
Crude Oil in SPR (10)........... 580.9 580.2 543.7 0.1 6.8
Total Stocks (Including SPR)(11) 1,588.1 1,593.5 1,549.5 -0.3 2.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
E = Estimate based on data published for the most recent month in the
"Petroleum Supply Monthly," except for exports,crude oil production and other
oil stocks.
Weekly estimates of exports are forecast using an autoregressive integrated
moving average procedure. The most recent 5 years of data are used to obtain
the forecasts. Crude oil production estimates are based on historical
production patterns. Cumulative crude oil production values shown in the U.S.
Petroleum Balance Sheet include revised estimates published in the "Petroleum
Supply Monthly". Other oils stocks data are derived by (1) computing an
average daily rate of stock change for the minor products for each month based
on monthly data for the past 6 years; (2) using this daily rate and the minor
stock levels from the most recent monthly publication to estimate the minor
product stock level for the current period. Year ago data are interpolated
from published monthly stock levels.
1 Includes lease condensate.
2 Net Imports = Gross Imports + Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Imports
- Exports
3 Unaccounted-for crude oil is a balancing item which is used to balance
data (or estimates) about supply with data (or estimates) about
disposition.
4 Includes finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, gasoline blending
components, and natural gas plant liquids.
5 Includes an estimate of minor product stock change based on monthly data
6 Includes field production of fuel ethanol and an adjustment for motor
gasoline blending components.
7 Includes crude oil product supplied, natural gas liquids, liquefied
refinery gases (LRGs), other liquids, and all finished petroleum products
except motor gasoline, jet fuels, and distillate and residual fuel oils.
8 Includes domestic and Customs-cleared foreign crude oil in transit to
refineries.
9 Included are stocks of all other oils such as aviation gasoline,
kerosene, natural gas liquids and LRGs, other hydrocarbons and
oxygenates, aviation gasoline blending components, naphtha and other
oils for petrochemical feedstock use, special naphthas, lube oils,
waxes, coke, asphalt, road oil, and miscellaneous oils.
10 Crude oil stocks in the SPR include Non-US stocks held under foreign or
commercial storage agreements.
11 Distillate fuel oil stocks located in "Northeast Heating Oil Reserve" are
not included. For details see Appendix D, page 53, in the WPSR.
Note: Due to independent rounding, individual product detail may not add to
total.
Sources: -- Current Year Monthly Data: EIA, "Petroleum Supply Monthly"
and "Petroleum Supply Weekly".
-- Previous Year Data: EIA, "Petroleum Supply Annual".
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
