Replies to post #23674 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[lurqer]

Coming up on CNBC - What will a war in Iraq do to crude oil prices?

'Course it's CNBC.

lurqer

[augieboo]

So how come we are at 18 month lows for oil inventories

According to OPEC's monthly report, U.S. oil imports fell in July while refinery output and gasoline demand increased. Thus, the drop in oil inventories.

http://www.opec.org

Also, while you're doing homework, you might want to check out these links:

American Petroleum Institute http://api-ec.api.org/newsplashpage/index.cfm

BP Statistical Review of World Energy http://208.254.0.207/centres/energy/index.asp

International Energy Agency http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm

Here are a few stats from API:

Petroleum Facts At A Glance, August 2002
1. U.S. petroleum imports (crude & products) in July were 11,533,000 barrels per day (b/d); imports in the same month last year were 11,745,000 (b/d). (API).

2. Total imports in July as a percentage of total domestic petroleum deliveries 58.7 percent; imports as a percentage same month last year 59.0 percent. (API).

3. Persian Gulf petroleum represented 18.7 percent of total imports in May; 25.1 percent same month last year. (DOE).

4. Average price for a barrel of OPEC crude oil: $24.11 (08/02/02). (DOE).

5. Average U.S. refiner acquisition cost for a barrel of crude oil: $24.16 (June). (DOE).

6. U.S. crude oil production in July was 5,848,000 b/d (of which 978,000 b/d was Alaskan); total U.S. crude oil production during the same month last year 5,749,000 b/d. U.S. natural gas liquids production in July was 1,914,000 b/d; same month last year, 1,899,000 b/d. (API).

7. U.S. marketed natural gas production was 54.0 billion cubic feet per day in May; same month last year, 56.5 billion cf/d. (DOE).

8. U.S. deliveries from primary storage of motor gasoline in July were 9,165,000 b/d; same month last year 9,023,000 b/d. (API).

9. U.S. deliveries from primary storage of distillate fuel oil (home heating and diesel) in July were 3,538,000 b/d; same month last year 3,569,000 b/d. (API).

10. Total petroleum products delivered to the domestic market in July 19,638,000 b/d; same month last year 19,919,000 b/d. (API).

11. Count of active rotary drilling rigs in the U.S. as announced 08/09/02 was 854; average for 2001 was 1,156; average for 2000 was 918; all-time high of 4,530 announced 12/28/81; record low of 488 announced 4/23/99. (Baker Hughes Inc., Houston).

Estimated Crude and Products Imports to the U.S.
From Leading Supplier Countries

May 2002

 
                    
 Imports (MB/D)         % of Total Imports   % of Domestic Product Supplied 
   
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 
  
 1.  Canada 1,912       16.5                  9.7 
   
 2.  Mexico 1,562       13.5                  7.9 
   
 3.  Saudi Arabia 1,547   13.3                7.9 
   
 4.  Venezuela   1,286 
  11.1 
  6.5 
   
 5.   
  Nigeria 
  552 
  4.8 
  2.8 
   
 6.   
  United Kingdom 
  487 
  4.2 
  2.5 
   
 7.   
  Norway 
  476 
  4.1 
  2.4 
   
 8.   
  Iraq 
  436 
  3.8 
  2.2 
   
 9.   
  Algeria 
  367 
  3.2 
  1.9 
   
 10.   
  Russia 
  363 
  3.1 
  1.8 
   
   
  Other 
  2,624 
  22.6 
  13.3 
   
   
  Total 
  11,612 
  100 
  59.0 
   
  OPEC Countries 
  4,463 
  38.4 
  22.7 
   
   
  Persian Gulf  Countries 
  2,175 
  18.7 
  11.1 
   
   
    
    
 Year To Date 
  
 January-May 2001 
   
    
 1.   
  Canada 
  1,876 
  16.8 
  9.6 
   
 2.   
  Saudi Arabia 
  1,524 
  13.7 
  7.8 
   
 3.   
  Mexico 
  1,484 
  13.3 
  7.6 
   
 4.   
  Venezuela 
  1,329 
  11.9 
  6.8 
   
 5.   
  Iraq 
  699 
  6.3 
  3.6 
   
 6.   
  Nigeria 
  541 
  4.9 
  2.8 
   
 7.   
  United Kingdom 
  387 
  3.5 
  2.0 
   
 8.   
  Norway 
  367 
  3.3 
  1.9 
   
 9.   
  Algeria 
  324 
  2.9 
  1.7 
   
 10.   
  Angola 
  323 
  2.9 
  1.7 
   
   
  Other 
  2,293 
  20.6 
  11.8 
   
   
  Total 
  11,147 
  100.0 
  57.3 
   
   
   
  OPEC Countries 
  4,729 
  42.4 
  24.3 
   
   
  Persian Gulf  Countries 
  2,458 
  22.1 
  12.6 
   
 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
 

* Supplier of products made from crude oil
Source: DOE, Petroleum Supply Monthly, July 2002

Here is some more statistical stuff from API:

API Monthly Statistical Report, July 2002
WASHINGTON, August 19—Assisted by stable, reasonably low retail gasoline prices and continued personal income growth, demand for gasoline increased 1.6 percent compared to a year ago, the American Petroleum Institute reported today. July retail gasoline prices averaged only 1 percent higher than in June 2002, and were 2 percent lower than July 2001. Including July 2002, prices have been below year-ago levels for the 14th consecutive month, the Monthly Statistical Report said.

Year-to-year demand, as measured by refinery product deliveries closer to consumers, was on the downside for distillate at 0.9 percent, kerosine jet fuel down 4.5 percent, and residual fuel oil down 27.4 percent, the API report said.

The report also said that unusually high distillate demand a year ago incorporated distorted underpinning economic condition factors in July 2001. Thus, adjusting the year ago data would show demand last month actually increased at about 2 or 3 percent, API said.

Because current airline travel remains weak, deliveries of kerosine jet fuel reached 1.684 million barrels a day (b/d) last month, a 4.5 percent decline for the month. For the year to date they have fallen 7.1 percent.

Residual fuel oil deliveries plummeted 27.4 percent compared to July ’01 because large industrial users burned more of the less expensive natural gas in their boilers, said API. The report added that over the past 14 months, residual deliveries (demand) have declined an average 25 percent because of cheaper natural gas prices.

Crude oil production in the U.S. increased for the 9th straight month with 5.848 million b/d produced from domestic fields, a 1.7 percent gain over a year ago, the API report said; 4.870 million b/d came from the lower 48 states and 978,000 b/d from Alaska, the first time output there has been less than 1 million b/d per month since last October.

July’s actual production diverged with API’s second quarter report on completed oil and natural gas wells this year. Oil well completions declined nearly 30 percent from the 2nd quarter 2001 and gas well completions were down 37 percent, the report said. These first half year numbers were the lowest since 1999 and early 2000 and possibly show a negative impact on the development of new petroleum resources, API’s report said.

Total petroleum imports continued their decline for an 8th straight month and at 11.533 million b/d, reached their lowest mid-summer level since 1997. Foreign crude oil of 9.135 million b/d was down 4.2 percent from a year ago. Imports of gasoline and blending components of 996,000 b/d were 43.7 percent higher than a year ago.

Other highlights of the July Statistical Report in relation to July 2001:

· Deliveries of all other oils of 4.753 million b/d were down 1.3 percent.

· Natural gas liquids production of 1.914 million b/d was down 0.8 percent.

· Crude oil imports from Canada, one of the biggest, of 1.507 million b/d were 18.7 percent higher.

· Refinery inputs to crude distillation units of 15.740 million b/d were 0.7 percent higher, the first increase in more than year.

· July’s refinery utilization rate was 94.6 percent.

· Crude oil inventories of 305.7 million barrels were 2.3 percent lower and 4.3 percent lower than at the end of June 2002.

· Total gasoline stocks of 212.8 million barrels were 2 percent higher.

· Kerosine jet fuel stocks of 38.5 million barrels were 8.9 percent lower.

· Stocks of distillate fuel oil, used for heating and diesel vehicles, of 134.2 million barrels were 7.2 percent higher.

· Total petroleum inventories were 1.054 billion barrels 2.9 percent higher.

NOTE: 1 barrel = 42 U.S. Gallons

News media contact: Chris Kelley, 202.682.8181






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