Replies to post #5973 on Biotech Values

[Richter718]

<<<<What you’re calling “Survivorship Bias” I like to call program-survival bias so as to make it clear that it has nothing at all to do with patient survival >>>>

Perhaps caution of a similiar situation would apply to Genaera as it now stands. Is this your perception, obviously taking into account that we don't have even a multiple survival bias after one trial?

[rstor1]

Program survival bias

The first point makes absolute sense, but the second is criminal. I would believe it of some of the scams, but I don't think that the implication that a substantial number of failed trials is a consequence of CEOs pulling a fast one makes sense. It's a bit too cynical for me.

I think that a lot of the failed PIII's are due to an inadequate nummber of PII's run by small bios. They don't have the resources to conduct exploratory trials. And that is a consequence of the constant state of penury in which they exist. Thay can afford neither the cost nor the consequences of unsuccessful PII's.

One of the things that has made CTIC attractive is the sheer number of clinicals they're currently in. Despite all the legitimate knocks on the Biancos, they are serious about doing it right.

Bob