Replies to post #330327 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[John Jet]

You and I both are a bit too "rational" to buy these stocks. But they are nice devices, even though they don't yet have iPod's sex appeal. Maybe the new handheld XM device or SIRI's response will change that (as long as it's not designed by DPH). I agree with you on valuation. SIRI is insane. But since when does valuation matter to a daytrader? Have you seen its volume?

LT I think your analysis is correct that the threat is that a tighter capital market is SIRI's deathstar, but this just brings in an acquirer, though certainly at a haircut to today's lofty valu.

XM may well survive in its present form.

At any rate, I am bullish on the industry as a whole, and as long as FCC hands them a duopoly, the industry should thrive.

I don't know how long the duopoly lasts. At some point in time, FCC could even auction off rights to end the duopoly.

[John Jet]

<deleted>

[langostino]

Zeev - you make me smile

AAPL is a "temporary bargain" at $61?

I respect your methodology when you stick to the technicals the mo-mo games, but when you begin to use characterizations associated with valuations like "bargain", particularly when it comes to companies where you enjoy no special knowledge of the business, it starts to sound an awful lot like rationalization not discipline and reason.

So ... I can respect that you would love to buy AAPL at $61, because you see the momentum play in AAPL not yet done and wanting to capitalize on this re-trench in order to try and catch a big wave of enthusiasm and emotion leading toward the double-shot from Apple's MacWorld trade show where new goodies are always unveiled and the world comes under the spell of the Steve Jobs dog and pony show, combined with what is sure to be a monster blow-out quarter ... based on a good chart and technicals that might not have topped out.

But not because AAPL is a "bargain." Because right now, it's not. When it was a bargain was when you sold it for an astonishing $13.32, even while it was sitting on $12 net cash. You basically owned the business for free, but dumped it in the trash.

A month later, with the stock up more than 30%, you declared it had moved "for no good reason because of the music downloaded last week. I think this gambit will fail, a dollar a song is much too much for downloading, IMHO, and the fad will rapidly die. ... I have no special interest here at $17."

I'm not trying to rub your nose in it, but I don't see anyone else around here challenging you to review your methodology when it comes to using valuation metrics as a crutch to prop up the technical analysis and momentum game you are so very good at.

BTW, SYNA is following AAPL, not vice versa, and AAPL has been dumping because it's taken 4 downgrades in a week.

FWIW ... I think your $61 gambit would be a good one. But I'd be veeeeerrrry careful past MacWorld and earnings. I hope you get your $61 entry and profit handsomely. Good luck.