You and I both are a bit too "rational" to buy these stocks. But they are nice devices, even though they don't yet have iPod's sex appeal. Maybe the new handheld XM device or SIRI's response will change that (as long as it's not designed by DPH). I agree with you on valuation. SIRI is insane. But since when does valuation matter to a daytrader? Have you seen its volume?
LT I think your analysis is correct that the threat is that a tighter capital market is SIRI's deathstar, but this just brings in an acquirer, though certainly at a haircut to today's lofty valu.
XM may well survive in its present form.
At any rate, I am bullish on the industry as a whole, and as long as FCC hands them a duopoly, the industry should thrive.
I don't know how long the duopoly lasts. At some point in time, FCC could even auction off rights to end the duopoly.