Replies to post #18614 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[gfs_1999]

WAVE STRUCTURE
August,12
Chart 6 shows the wave structure on the Dow since the 9/21/01 low, and explains our
problem with concluding that the 7/24/02 lows were the lows due in this time frame. The rise of
the 9/21/01 lows unfolded in 3 waves upward, in an a-b-c manner. If the decline from the peak of
wave C was a true impulse wave down, under the Elliott Wave Principle, it should have unfolded
in 5 waves down to the next low. As you can see, there is a clear 3 wave count down to the
7/24/02 lows, and we would now be in a wave 4 rally. This count suggests there should be a 5th
wave down to new lows before the next true bottom for this time frame. The only other
alternative as we see it, is that the decline from the March highs to the July lows was a 3 wave
affair, making it a corrective wave decline, as opposed to an impulse wave. This count would
mean that we have already seen the lows in the Dow, and would be the more bullish count
intermediate term. This count would label the rise from 9/21/01 to 3/8/02 as a wave A, the
decline from 3/8/02 to 7/24/02 as wave B, and that we should now be in a wave C rally that
would ultimately prove extremely strong intermediate term. However, at this point, we cannot
consider it the most likely count.


Today update: Jerry Favors
While the wave structure off the July 24 lows is by no means impulsive, by which we mean there has been no clear 5 wave structure upwards, the rise has lasted long enough to suggest the Basic Decline bottom we discussed in our July 15 newsletter may well have been seen on July 24, in line with the LIindsay Count from the Middle Section. But a serious test of the July 24 lows still cannot be ruled out, and if the Gann Weekly Chart turns down from here on, such a test, we believe, will be likely. For now, at least, neither the Dow or the Nasdaq have done anything really wrong just yet.


My question is : Will the market test Jully low? Sep/Oct or
we go higher until 2003


Regards
GFS

[ajtj99]

only 30 New highs on the Dow, what a sham...).

Yeah, you'd think they'd be able to get 31 or 32 new highs on the Dow <G>

I think you meant the NYSE and not the Dow <G>.

[Fred Langford]

Defense stocks up amid Iraq talk

Merrill likes ATK, Raytheon; GD repels Gulfstream doubt
By August Cole, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 11:44 AM ET Aug. 22, 2002
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of defense contractors advanced Thursday as analysts posited that certain firms would benefit from a military campaign to unseat Saddam Hussein.
The Amex Defense Index (DFI: news, chart, profile) rose 0.5 percent on a day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average retake the 9,000 level for the first time in six weeks. See full story.

On a broader level, just the possibility of a U.S. attack on Iraq is enough reason for investor exposure to the defense sector, Merrill Lynch said. Merrill Lynch highlighted shares of ammunition and rocketry specialist ATK (ATK: news, chart, profile) and Raytheon (RTN: news, chart, profile), maker of the Patriot air-defense missile system.

That said, the analysts noted that "investors can reassess their defense holdings if no war occurs, or after a week or two into a military campaign."

ATK rose 25 cents to $68.25 and Raytheon rose 45 cents to $34.75.

The certainty of such an effort is anything but assured, despite high-profile reports that ostensibly detail U.S. plans to carry out the White House's well-known wish to remove Iraq's leader from power. Still, that possibility, and a broader campaign to hunt terrorist groups, has helped defense stocks bounce back from brief declines.

Most other shares in the sector also advanced though Northrop (NOC: news, chart, profile) and soon-to-be-acquired TRW (TRW: news, chart, profile) were unchanged.

No. 1 aerospace company Boeing (BA: news, chart, profile) rose 59 cents to $38.13. Shares have been hobbled by an increasingly desperate outlook in the commercial aviation sector.

United Technologies (UTX: news, chart, profile) rose $1.09 to $62.35.

Honeywell (HON: news, chart, profile) rose 27 cents to $31.02.

Lockheed Martin (LMT: news, chart, profile), the largest defense contractor, rose 8 cents to $63.53.

General Dynamics (GD: news, chart, profile) added on 76 cents to $80.75. UBS Warburg cut its full-year 2003 profit estimates for the aerospace company on concerns about its executive jet business at its Gulfstream unit. UBS expects 80 deliveries now, down from 96. The brokerage also reiterated its "buy" rating but took down the price target to $95, from $102.

August Cole is spot news editor at CBS.MarketWatch.com in Chicago