Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[gfs_1999]

WAVE STRUCTURE
August,12
Chart 6 shows the wave structure on the Dow since the 9/21/01 low, and explains our
problem with concluding that the 7/24/02 lows were the lows due in this time frame. The rise of
the 9/21/01 lows unfolded in 3 waves upward, in an a-b-c manner. If the decline from the peak of
wave C was a true impulse wave down, under the Elliott Wave Principle, it should have unfolded
in 5 waves down to the next low. As you can see, there is a clear 3 wave count down to the
7/24/02 lows, and we would now be in a wave 4 rally. This count suggests there should be a 5th
wave down to new lows before the next true bottom for this time frame. The only other
alternative as we see it, is that the decline from the March highs to the July lows was a 3 wave
affair, making it a corrective wave decline, as opposed to an impulse wave. This count would
mean that we have already seen the lows in the Dow, and would be the more bullish count
intermediate term. This count would label the rise from 9/21/01 to 3/8/02 as a wave A, the
decline from 3/8/02 to 7/24/02 as wave B, and that we should now be in a wave C rally that
would ultimately prove extremely strong intermediate term. However, at this point, we cannot
consider it the most likely count.


Today update: Jerry Favors
While the wave structure off the July 24 lows is by no means impulsive, by which we mean there has been no clear 5 wave structure upwards, the rise has lasted long enough to suggest the Basic Decline bottom we discussed in our July 15 newsletter may well have been seen on July 24, in line with the LIindsay Count from the Middle Section. But a serious test of the July 24 lows still cannot be ruled out, and if the Gann Weekly Chart turns down from here on, such a test, we believe, will be likely. For now, at least, neither the Dow or the Nasdaq have done anything really wrong just yet.


My question is : Will the market test Jully low? Sep/Oct or
we go higher until 2003


Regards
GFS