Replies to post #5129 on Biotech Values

[Richter718]

<<<<it means that patients are not living as long as expected. Of course, it could be only the placebo patients who are dying early but, more likely, it's the Iressa patients.

What's bearish for Iressa competitively is of course bullish for Tarceva.>>>

What a positively morbid comment!

[rkrw]

I certainly hope you're right. Hard to know though just when results should have been expected.

I think it's a serious risk (even if not apples to apples) and it didn't cost much to hedge with 45s. Puts went up well >100% today after I bt. Still hope they expire worthless. I also bt a few 65 calls as I think osi goes to >70 if isel fails. Calls were <1 per. Will be a fun one. So I currently hold a long straddle, but fully hedged on any drop <40 or so.

[rkrw]

Primary endpt might be stacked in their favor. Co Primary endpoint is adenocarcinoma subset and at a fair bit > 1/2 of enrolled.

http://hcp.iressa.com/article/504498.aspx

Isn't adeno where most nonsmokers are? This is where tarceva did best.