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gilead23

01/26/10 8:14 PM

#56 RE: littlefish #55

Thats a good guess

I had guessed revenue numbers right in the range you suggest although I could see them come close to last Q's revenue numbers despite seasonality because they did not get full benefit from the acquisition last Q and they mentioned some other programs ramping up. I'll go 37 million and .19 in eps. I think I had originally said .17. Hopefully thats conservative.
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ghmm

01/26/10 8:46 PM

#57 RE: littlefish #55

I am not good at guessing these things and that's all it would be at this point. I tend to be an optimist too so I wouldn't want to disappoint (the 7 :-)) others if my guess is way too high :-). I wouldn't strongly disagree with yours or gilead's numbers though I hope to do better :-). I would like to see a couple things though:
1) GM's in 32%+ range
2) EBITDA in the 7 million+ range
3) Them to reiterate being on track to eliminate the debt by year end.
4) Hopefully no big one time charges :-).
I wouldn't be shocked to see them announce a small buyback. Personally I tend to only like them when they are meaningful (such as say 5% annually) but it may give the stock a nice cushion. I would prefer them do a couple of acquisitions (on the cheap I would buy back rather then pay "market prices" like Joffe eluded too) or invest in expanding it seems we could grow a lot in the Heavy Duty.

Its a descent but not very large position yet so I'ld like to add a little more before the Q if the opportunity arrives. Then lets see how the numbers go and how much (if any) more I'll add.

I thought you were Mr. 99 when I saw those 5.x99 trades today.