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Theo

01/07/10 11:04 AM

#217319 RE: Stock #217318

You study well Grasshopper
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Theo

01/07/10 11:11 AM

#217320 RE: Stock #217318

Here's the deal:

"According to Real Capital Analytics, a New York real-estate research firm, more than $160 billion of commercial properties in the U.S. are now in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy.

During most of 2009, opportunistic investors accumulated cash to go after distressed assets but there was very little deal activity primarily because lenders were unwilling to unload debt at distressed prices. But this year, more lenders are expected to take hits as the financing drought continues and rents and occupancy rates keep falling.

The amount of debt available for sale is skyrocketing. Many banks remain reluctant to sell at prices investors are demanding. But the government and servicers responsible for handling defaulted commercial mortgages that were packaged into bonds, known as commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, are emerging as big sellers.
"

But, here is the wild card imo:

"Private-equity funds, sovereign-wealth funds and other investors have accumulated billions of dollars in the hope of taking advantage of the carnage in the same way that investors did during the last real-estate downturn."

Interesting to see how 2010 fares- I'm going to play it like a reverse "Go to the dance but dance close to the door" and "hang outside the dance-hall door and smoke a stogie and wait for the punch bowl to get spiked" :-D