Rkrw, APPA has an good drug delivery platform technology, and with the revenues from APF-530 they could build a properous company. But I'm figuring the company may get sold following approval to one of the CINV pharma players (Roche, Glaxo, Aventis, Eisai).
Tang Capital and Baker Bros have controlling interest in APPA and a couple seats on the BOD, and selling the company would allow them to cash out with nice profits. So that could increase the near term upside potential for the stock both pre and post PDUFA, since with good data a 505 b-2 approval is comparatively easy (relatively speaking), and if a subsequent sale is seen as likely, many investors may hold for the buyout.
A sales price of $6-8 seems realistic (fully diluted market cap in the $300-400 mil range), if you conservatively project peak annual sales of APF-530 ramping up to $100-150 mil range (Aloxi currently over $400 mil annually). Kevin Tang and the Baker Bros are very sharp, so they might get even more in a sale.
Alternately, they could decide to partner APF-530 to a pharma player in the CINV area, and APPA would then stay independent. But that doesn't leave Tang/Baker with an easy exit, so I'm figuring they sell the company, with APF-530 probably going to Roche (who owns regular Granisetron, the patent for which ran out in 2007), and APPA's drug delivery platform perhaps going to a company in the drug delivery area (Alkermes, Depomed, Durect, Pacira for example).
Share price-wise, I'm estimating -
$2-3 - pre-PDUFA period (Jan-Mar)(mkt cap - $100-150 mil)
$3-5 - post-approval period (mkt cap - $150-250 mil)
$6-8 - sales price (mkt cap - $300-400 mil)
(Current stock price - $1.40)
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