Replies to post #88489 on Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

APPA:

>if you conservatively project peak annual sales of APF-530 ramping up to $100-150 mil range (Aloxi currently over $400 mil annually)<

If I understand correctly, the trial was for non-inferiority.

If so, why would you expect it to be able to take ~30% of Aloxi's market? What is the selling point?

[rkrw]

APPA.

Thanks for sharing.

I do think your numbers are probably on the high side for a takeout. I would pull it down in half but that's just me.

AP can't do anything with it on their own and it would be value destroying to partner it instead of selling the company. PGS point is apt, taking 30% of the market won't come easy against an entrenched and very good product. It will take time to make inroads.

I personally think it will end up with Abraxis. The Abraxis CEO and top management and much of the sales team all came from MGI Pharma (Aloxi). They ought to know the market :)