Replies to post #319516 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[KyrosL]

I agree with you about an automatic system of investment for SS funds that is not "managed," but there is no reason to confine such investments to the US markets. For best returns the funds should be invested in a broad worldwide stock index.

[lee kramer]

Hi Zeev: You offer a thoughful response, yet I must disagree. No serious money, no critical-for-some-money [my thinking only] should go into equities, any equities, ever.

[Public Heel]

If we let individuals manage entries and exits from one class to another, we end up with 90% of our population not having sufficient SS funds by the time they retire.

But it's MY MONEY, and I know best how to use it!! <vvbg>

[Ken2]

<< The real solution would be to take all the inflow of monies, split in four, 1/4 in TIPS, 1/4, in DIA, 1/4 in SPY and 1/4 in QQQ. >>

Zeev,

Based on this comment, you seem to be long-term bullish the markets. After 1929, it took decades for the market to make new highs. Do you have any estimate as to when the Nasdaq will exceed its 2000 bubble top of 5,000+?

Also, thanks for your response to my question regarding the Real Estate bubble. Am I correct to assume that you are not concerned about FNM and FRE, the accounting irregularities, their derivative positions, and the possible effects on the over-all economy?

Some hype that I have seen (ad for "Strategic Investment" newsletter) says that this will be worse than the 1930's Depression.
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/housing910/
The extremity of their claims and their certainty of their occurance do tend to bring their credibility into question.

Thanks - Ken

[goodluck]

The real solution would be to take all the inflow of monies, split in four, 1/4 in TIPS, 1/4, in DIA, 1/4 in SPY and 1/4 in QQQ.

But who decides what companies go into DIA, SPY and QQQ? Does that automatically give the people who choose the composition of the indices a power that they shouldn't have? And give those companies an automatic and potentially huge investment bonus?

[JimQuinceH]

Zeev, I've got two IRA accounts, one a contributory IRA and one was a rollover IRA from a previous employer. I have found that all a person has to to is find one core stock and stick with it for decades.

In my contributory IRA I found KMP, which is up 229% in the eleven years that I've owned it and more importantly raised it's dividend 338%, in that time.

In my rollover IRA I found FITB, which has split eight times, in twenty-four years and is up 4,581% from my split adjusted cost and has raised the dividend 700%, in that time.

I take the funds derived from those dividends to trade other stocks within those IRA's, but I allways hold onto those core holdings, come hell or high water.

Jim

[Kaja Bear N]

<The real solution> I agree 200% with everything in the post except for the allocation. If stock and bond performance are not directly correlated, and stocks outperform bonds, I'd go with a 33/66 split, but since many stocks have bond-like qualities the 25/75 split is reasonable. Why not buy the Wilshire "total market"? I'd put 5-10% in gold and 10-15% in international funds (as long as using american $$ to invest offshore only works for the corporate sector) to smooth out the ripples further.

I'd call all the loans (IOU's) within the next 24 months and DCA the balance over that time. New excess funds would be used to buy government paper if it was needed within the next 5 years, otherwise allocated.

Back of the envelope calculations push the "reckoning day" close to 2100. Odds are there will be some global calamity by then that will save the grab and spenders from fulfilling their promises.