jd, I'll assume you've never even seen a chart from 1929, or the overlay of the 2000 bubble on that chart. That's so obviously apparent that even my kids could tell they are nearly identical.
As for the high level of probability, I'll leave Augie to quote Bulkowski on that H&S pattern on the Dow. I think it has an 88% reliability and a 66% chance of reaching it's target. That's probably a bit better than your wild guess.
As for advanced degrees, I know many folks with advanced degrees in math or physical science who are getting killed by this market.
I'll just leave you guys alone. Sorry for wanting people to back up what they say with anything other than their own gut feelings.
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