think it has an 88% reliability and a 66% chance of reaching it's target. That's probably a bit better than your wild guess.
I get back to you when it has .98 to .99 reliability and a greater then 95% chance of happening to tell you that DOW 3800 is coming whence I post from the bomb shelter with the survival rations and Gold bullion. Until then 88% reliability is just plain fear mongering IMO.
One of the things I like best about this thread is the difference of opinions.. One of the things I like least is when it gets nasty...Bullish vs. Bearish views.... I been there also...I appreciate your views and I appreciated the Cheif's and Zeev's and Carpinos yada yada yada...