Replies to post #1691 on Puda Coal Inc (PUDA)

[Drexion2004]

The two new mines are almost all 'good quality Thermal' according to Laby Wu... Its the Jinhe Mine that was 50/50... Adjust the model accordingly if you want a bit more accuracy.

The initial production will be 450k, I have no idea how much it will cost to bring it up to 900k and no idea of a timeline for that upgrade...Supposedly the upgrade will not interfere with the 450k production.

40% is a good margin assumption, IMO.

I think your price assumption per ton of thermal is a bit high, but its hard to project 2 years into the future (grin). I'd use a $65-$70 number for thermal coal right now.

-Fernando

[Traderfan]

Bogus, you said:


ok, with all respect to TraderFan, I am going to throw some eps # re. the two new mines b/c regardless of what it costs and how long it takes to finance the mines and get them up to full production, the revenue side is not going to change much as long as the model parameters are valid.



I hope you didn't misunderstand me when I said that it makes no sense at all to predict any prices going forward 18 months or so when it comes to this stock. I realize I might have been a bit imprecise in my latest posting. I was ONLY speaking about forecasting the stock price based on TA analysis of course I wasn't speaking about EPS predictions. Just to make that clear. I think you are spot on with your latest EPS predictions and be sure that I will be fully invested here once I am convinced that there won't be any further financing in the near term.