Sunday, December 06, 2009 7:31:10 PM
ok, with all respect to TraderFan, I am going to throw some eps # re. the two new mines b/c regardless of what it costs and how long it takes to finance the mines and get them up to full production, the revenue side is not going to change much as long as the model parameters are valid. This is based on Gorilla's Jianhe Model calculation posted on IHub Nov 29 (funny, this is the second time I expanded his idea on a stock's projection, the first one was to calculate BSPM's expected rev from a certain # of new outlets per quarter and year). Bear in mind this is a very rough estimate and is as good as the assumptions made.
Assume:
1) 50/50 coking/thermal coal for the 2 new mines at $140/$90 per ton good say in about 2-3 years (currently $105 and $70 may be?).
2) 100% capacity at 900 KTons per year for the 2 new mines combined.
3) a net margin of 40% based on LLFH and SGZH.
4) O/S 15% higher than today O/S= 15.4M x 1.15= 17.7MM shares
Total annual revenue= (450,000 x 140) + (450,000 x 90)= 103.5MM
Net Income= 40% x 103.5 MM = 41.4MM
additional eps= 41.4/17.7= $2.34 from the 2 new mines
I am expecting $0.67 total non-GAAP eps for 2009. So that's like 3.5x current eps just from the 2 new mines.
Now throw in eps= $1.56 from 18% Jianhe (based from Gorilla's model with 40% Net Margin and 600 KTon capacity) and about $1.5 eps from current washing operation, total eps = 2.34+1.56+1.5= $5.4
Bottom line: my guess is the eps will be about 5x last year eps of $1.1 with the addition of 18% Jianhe mine and 2 new mines.
Assume:
1) 50/50 coking/thermal coal for the 2 new mines at $140/$90 per ton good say in about 2-3 years (currently $105 and $70 may be?).
2) 100% capacity at 900 KTons per year for the 2 new mines combined.
3) a net margin of 40% based on LLFH and SGZH.
4) O/S 15% higher than today O/S= 15.4M x 1.15= 17.7MM shares
Total annual revenue= (450,000 x 140) + (450,000 x 90)= 103.5MM
Net Income= 40% x 103.5 MM = 41.4MM
additional eps= 41.4/17.7= $2.34 from the 2 new mines
I am expecting $0.67 total non-GAAP eps for 2009. So that's like 3.5x current eps just from the 2 new mines.
Now throw in eps= $1.56 from 18% Jianhe (based from Gorilla's model with 40% Net Margin and 600 KTon capacity) and about $1.5 eps from current washing operation, total eps = 2.34+1.56+1.5= $5.4
Bottom line: my guess is the eps will be about 5x last year eps of $1.1 with the addition of 18% Jianhe mine and 2 new mines.
