Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Cementing the Chinese connection —Shaukat Qadir

Note: From the Chinese Eastern ports, the sea route towards North and South America is convenient through the Pacific Ocean. However to connect to Europe or the Middle East, it has to take a long circuitous route via the Straits of Malacca to reach the Gulf of Aden — a distance of about 5,000 miles.

Currently, 60% of China's oil imports are transmitted through the Malacca Strait. Should it ever be blocked, China would suffer enormously.
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Rumsfeld ‘s comments fuelled speculation that the United States wants to deploy US forces in the Strait of Malacca, the narrow and busy shipping lane straddled by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore that is seen as a likely terrorist target.
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In deploying troops to the Strait of Malacca the United States would be furthering its agenda to contain and surround China. It is also imperative that Bush try and block China’s presence in Gwadar not only for economic but also for military reasons as Gwadar Port figures in Bush’s plans to dominate or invade Iran who has just now signed what has the potential to be a 200 billion dollar deal with China.
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The economically viable route for all goods from the Central Asian Republics lies via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the seas. However, political instability in Afghanistan and some areas in Pakistan discourage such a venture.

The Gwadar Port project is expected to cater to Chinese interests in the region. But there is another window of opportunity as well. China wants Tibet connected with the mainland by building a huge railroad. If the project succeeds, it is likely to add to the wonders of the world, taking train traffic to a hitherto unprecedented height.
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Gwadar would put the Chinese navy next to Iran’s shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz. The Chinese have a considerable investment in Iran’s oil and gas. Bush plans on attacking Iran by choking the Strait of Hormuz.
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While this may change, an amphibious attack was originally targeted against Iran from the Arabian Sea, with a provocative US blockade in the Gulf of Oman to choke Iran’s sealanes of communications. Pakistan would be the base for mounting massive air reconnaissance and surveillance of Iran, while Iranian dissidents, backed by the US army, would launch land assaults from the Iraq-Iran border. Diplomatic sources say, the main body of the plan would remain the same, although component tactics could change.
http://www.thedailystar.net/2004/07/03/d40703100483.htm

-Am


Cementing the Chinese connection —Shaukat Qadir


Pakistan and China have a long history of friendly relations. But they can run out of steam if we don’t nurture them properly. It is important, therefore, to identify areas where the two countries can have greater interdependency.

What are Pakistan’s options in this regard?

The Gwadar Port project is expected to cater to Chinese interests in the region. But there is another window of opportunity as well. China wants Tibet connected with the mainland by building a huge railroad. If the project succeeds, it is likely to add to the wonders of the world, taking train traffic to a hitherto unprecedented height.

But it will be more than a technical feat: the project may lead to another possibility whereby Kashgar and Havelian may get connected in a similar manner via the Khunjerab pass! This throws up a question: why would the Chinese be interested in doing that?

One can answer this by taking a look at the world map. From the Chinese Eastern ports, the sea route towards North and South America is convenient through the Pacific Ocean. However to connect to Europe or the Middle East, it has to take a long circuitous route via the Straits of Malacca to reach the Gulf of Aden — a distance of about 5,000 miles to reach the Gulf of Aden and over 6,000 miles to reach the Persian Gulf.

Travel by sea has always been the cheapest transportation option for goods produced in Eastern China. They are taken to the Eastern ports from where they are shipped abroad.

Little wonder then that China witnessed greater industrial development towards the Eastern parts of the country. Conscious of this inequality, and the sense of deprivation that it spawned among its people, Beijing has taken steps in the last two decades to correct the situation.

The oil pipeline from Kyrgyzstan ends at Urumchi, the capital of Sinkiang, which also houses an oil refinery. There has been enormous industrial growth in and around Urumchi in recent years, and I am told that the once neglected city now equals Beijing in all respects.

But how does one transport the goods produced in Urumchi to other parts of the world? Through eastern coasts in China? That way, the goods will be travelling a distance of nearly 2,000 miles on land. But if there were a railroad link — from Kashgar or Urumchi to Havelian — it would provide a cheaper and shorter route from Western China to the mouth of the Persian Gulf. In fact if Pakistan connects that rail route to Gwadar, the Chinese goods would only be travelling 1,400 miles to reach the Gulf of Aden!

In this way, it will be cheaper to transport goods from Western China to the Middle East or Europe by using the rail link. The goods may be taken to Gwadar from where they may be taken to their intended destination.

But this is not all. The economically viable route for all goods from the Central Asian Republics lies via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the seas. However, political instability in Afghanistan and some areas in Pakistan discourage such a venture. Since bringing peace to these troubled places appears difficult in foreseeable future, the Central Asian goods could also benefit from the rail link. In fact, it could even be cheaper for them to transport their goods using the rail connection instead of using the more direct overland route.

Thus, not only would this link become a commercial venture benefiting both China and Pakistan but it would also help forge a strategic relationship between the Central Asian Republics, China and Pakistan — a relationship that could result in long-term benefit for all.

One hopes someone in the corridors of power has thought about this.

Be that as it may, this venture may produce great dividends — and perhaps help us break the shackles of international financial institutions.

The author is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_30-10-2004_pg3_8