Karel, Tom, Anyone, On my Fokker Investment in 1996.
You may find this interesting. On my real Fokker investment in 1996 I used the Vortex Method but I did the buying and selling simply buy eyeballing the stock prices and deciding when to buy and to sell off the cuff, I thought I could fly with the seat of my pants jus as well as with looking at the instruments.
I am not sure if I posted all the Fokker dope but here is a recap:
1 Buy & Hold Yield: -47% annual;
2 Off the cuff Vortex Actual Yield: -4,4%;
3 First Vortex Optimisation: + 11% (a few weeks ago)
4 Second Vortex Optimisation( 3rd August): + 27%
This goes to show that manual optimisation is a very tricky thing to do. You never know of you hit the highest peak in the optimisation field. This, and the previous simulations I did, also shows that with optimisation a tremendous benefit over the Buy & Hold can be achieved with any stock. Not the least it shows that flying on optimally adjusted instruments beats the hell out of flying on the seat of my pants: Getting the emotion or gut feeling judgement out of investing is absolutely necessary to get super yields out any type of stock.
I believe that with the latest test results I can start forgetting about long term back-testing and stick to frequent optimisations, using short stock histories. This would lead to the realization of my optimisation notions I developed in 1994, but then I had no idea about actually getting them to work. Thanks to many discussions and facing challenging issues on this Board. I think I understand where I am going.
What I see now as being within reach for me is maybe not new to some of you but what I have come to is this: In the fashion also of some of the ideas on the Think Along website, I am ready to implement Automatic Optimisation for Vortex with 6 Vortex parameters, using frequent optimisation runs, say every month or so, with which I will end up chasing the theoretical optimum performance of the trading system. Each addition of an heretofore unknown stock price will change the old optimised parameter set to a new optimised set.
This optimisation, as I envision it, always being able to find the absolute optimum point in the 6-variable Yield Function.
If my test runs are any guide then the Vortex Method can beat any AIM BTB for any stock except for a perfect Straight-liner.
Is there any point in this on which I could be wrong or ill informed? I am ready to start looking for an automatic procedure to do the optimisation. I rather not start installing the engine if the boat is still leaking.
Comments are appreciated.
Conrad
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