Replies to post #121726 on Mr Cooper Group Inc fka COOP

[Sculelos]

Excellent Post. I have done considerable digging and I do think that you are definitely on the right track. I'm thinking that they will in fact restart the dividends on the PQ's and KQ's and keep the UQ's intact and just let them do their own thing, that would definitely be the cheapest method.

The WMB bondholders will need to file a suit against the FDIC/JPM as WMI has no responsibility for them. (Also JPM paid 1.9 Billion for the bank already, WMB bondholders have a maximum claim of 6.7Billion, so at max claim to 4.8 Billion if more is paid for the bank, I'm quite confident it's going to be much more then 4.8 Billion, try 24 Billion for WamuBank alone!)

The KQ's should see a 4% annual divid-end and the PQ's should see a 7.75% annual dividend, KQ's are much more likely to be paid out first but the PQ's will see a higher dividend so I'm kinda divided on the issue of the preferred stocks.

WAHUQ will definitely be paid out with all the other debt but with it trading at 8.70 with the pay out price being 33$ it will be slightly under 4x value of current price, still an excellent return from what I'm calling a pretty safe gamble.

I'm also got about 2.6Billion in bonds due out by the end of 2011 so I'm quite sure if WMI returns to a profitable business the bondholders will be paid easily and if not they would be issued some new stock which is why WMI bonds are trading at a high value, not much to lose IMO and institutions seem to be gobbling them up, keep in mind an institution at max can only gobble up 5% of WamUQ stock which is 85Million shares which could be bought for about 10 Million now days.

In numbers what we are seeing the potential of

Current Assets: 3.24Billion
Current Liabilities: 7.8Billion in secured debt, .29 Million a year in preferred dividend payment, plus about 2.75 Billion worth of WMI bonds due in 1 year or less.

Total current liabilities: About 10.84 Billion

What we could potentially see given back to WMI in form of assets or cash which are assets: (Remember these are lowball figures)

4 Billion in WMI deposits returned
3+ Billion in potential tax refunds
24+ Billion for WAMUbanks
20+ Billion for WAMUfsb
6+ Billion for Providian
13+ Billion in Damages against the FDIC
20+ Billion in Subsidiaries

So remember we could be sitting on a 80 Billion+ Giant which is more then fee-sable considering they did have over 300 Billion in assets pre-seizure, also keep in mind about 80Billion in debt did transfer with WMB but they also took around 40 Billion in cash plus 307 Billion worth in assets, that should make them at least another 39 Billion worth of cash, so they basically got it for "Free". Sure Wish I could go get a 3 Million dollar business for 19K, that had 800K in debt but 400K in cash and at least 390K coming in over the next few months... there is no other way to say it but I bieve JPM/FDIC siezed a "Solvent Bank", and also took WMBfsb with it which should have never happened.

Either-way they could keep commons intact 51% and still preserve the NOLS so at a minimum if all the things I said come to pass we could be worth 23.5$/share all the way up to 47$/share or we could get badly defeated in court and lose all count of the cases which I described, but I don't see that as very likely at this point.

IMO DiamondGuru's 3x Value he's been rambling on forever about looks like it might actually become a reality and I'm pretty sure we might see this whole thing happen before 2011.

Either-way if you made it this far thanks for reading my long winded rant!

[JohnnyWinter]

It is common knowledge that WMI will get "some refund".

"Oh now you agree we will get some refund."


This is a very simple issue, and if total liabilities are 9B an total assets are 8 B, then the commons are not in the money. Commons are actually more than 4.5B short of being in the money because WMI has to issue $3.9 billion in NEW PREFERREDS due to the exchange event (aka the preferred securities referenced in WMI's MORs ).

"This a very simple issue.

Total Liabilities ~ 9B

Total Assets ~ 8B

Preferred Share ~ $3.5B (Not due anytime soon so pay divis and 3.5B would only cost the estate about $300M/yr). Therefore, commons would immediately be in the money. Only at liquidation is all the money due.

So commons are $4.5B short of being in the money. "


Worst case for WMI is not that "we split it 50:50" .


Tax refund of ~$7B and we split it 50:50 worst case = $3.5B


"Now all we need is the Judges to get this moving. "

"1. Re-evaluate the sale price. "

When this happens the BANK creditors will get paid.

"2. Give back FSB and Providian. "

FSB and Providian are not coming back and WMI isn't even asking for them back.


"3. Goldman Sachs purchase of the wind power business. "

When WMI Investment corp. sold their interest in the joint wind-venture they actually lost money per WMI's own MOR.


"4. 5 Million Shares of Series A Visa shares. "

These were part of the bank, and even if they weren't they aren't worth even close enough to put the commons in the money.

"5. Subsidiaries "

The subsidiaries that WMI has left aren't worth very much at all and there has been no "dd" that proves they have high worth.


"6. Return of Trust Assets. "

Since you didn't even reference which trust assets you feel will be returned and since you didn't even reference a "worth" of these assets I'll leave this alone for now.




I can go on too.


How about this ...


"24. The Debtors are currently insolvent. The Debtors' financial position subsequent
to the loss of their primary operating asset, WMB, is reflected on their schedules filed with this
Court which indicate $4.48 billion in assets and $7.83 billion in liabilities. This reality is further
bolstered by the presumption of insolvency afforded debtors pursuant to section 553 of the
Bankruptcy Code for the 90-day period immediately preceding the petition date See 11 U.S.c. §
553(c). It is the setoff applicant's burden to establish otherwise. In re Balducci Oil Co., 33 B.R.
847, 850 (Bankr. D. Colo. 1983). Although the Debtors have asserted claims to certain assets such as trust preferred securities and prospective tax refunds, both JPMC and the FDIC have
asserted claims against the Debtors for more than the total amount of such assets.

Further,
more than $100 billion in claims have been filed against the Debtors' estates in these chapter 11
cases. While a significant portion of these will not likely be allowed, they are further evidence
that the Debtors are currently insolvent and would be at the time of any exercise of Section 9.5.
Therefore, invocation of Section 9.5 would consist of a postpetition procurement of a debt of the
sort that section 553(a)(3) of the Bankruptcy Code prohibits from forming the basis for any
setoff."

Now I know where they are going with the section 9.5 argument, but the following item is what should be considered troubling to shareholders imo.

38. The further delay imposed on the Debtors threatens to derail the Debtors' chapter
11 cases. The $4 billion in Deposits are significant estate assets CRITICAL to the Debtors chapter 11
process. The recent amendments to the Bankruptcy Code impose a HARD DEADLINE of March 10,
2010 on the Debtors' exclusive period to file a chapter 11 plan. If the Debtors recover the
Deposits from JPMC, they will be well-positioned to file a plan in advance of their exclusivity
deadline. Without the Deposits, however, the Debtors will not be able to construct a viable plan
BENEFICIAL TO THEIR CREDITORS."


http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229091112000000000001.pdf