Excellent Post. I have done considerable digging and I do think that you are definitely on the right track. I'm thinking that they will in fact restart the dividends on the PQ's and KQ's and keep the UQ's intact and just let them do their own thing, that would definitely be the cheapest method.
The WMB bondholders will need to file a suit against the FDIC/JPM as WMI has no responsibility for them. (Also JPM paid 1.9 Billion for the bank already, WMB bondholders have a maximum claim of 6.7Billion, so at max claim to 4.8 Billion if more is paid for the bank, I'm quite confident it's going to be much more then 4.8 Billion, try 24 Billion for WamuBank alone!)
The KQ's should see a 4% annual divid-end and the PQ's should see a 7.75% annual dividend, KQ's are much more likely to be paid out first but the PQ's will see a higher dividend so I'm kinda divided on the issue of the preferred stocks.
WAHUQ will definitely be paid out with all the other debt but with it trading at 8.70 with the pay out price being 33$ it will be slightly under 4x value of current price, still an excellent return from what I'm calling a pretty safe gamble.
I'm also got about 2.6Billion in bonds due out by the end of 2011 so I'm quite sure if WMI returns to a profitable business the bondholders will be paid easily and if not they would be issued some new stock which is why WMI bonds are trading at a high value, not much to lose IMO and institutions seem to be gobbling them up, keep in mind an institution at max can only gobble up 5% of WamUQ stock which is 85Million shares which could be bought for about 10 Million now days.
In numbers what we are seeing the potential of
Current Assets: 3.24Billion
Current Liabilities: 7.8Billion in secured debt, .29 Million a year in preferred dividend payment, plus about 2.75 Billion worth of WMI bonds due in 1 year or less.
Total current liabilities: About 10.84 Billion
What we could potentially see given back to WMI in form of assets or cash which are assets: (Remember these are lowball figures)
4 Billion in WMI deposits returned
3+ Billion in potential tax refunds
24+ Billion for WAMUbanks
20+ Billion for WAMUfsb
6+ Billion for Providian
13+ Billion in Damages against the FDIC
20+ Billion in Subsidiaries
So remember we could be sitting on a 80 Billion+ Giant which is more then fee-sable considering they did have over 300 Billion in assets pre-seizure, also keep in mind about 80Billion in debt did transfer with WMB but they also took around 40 Billion in cash plus 307 Billion worth in assets, that should make them at least another 39 Billion worth of cash, so they basically got it for "Free". Sure Wish I could go get a 3 Million dollar business for 19K, that had 800K in debt but 400K in cash and at least 390K coming in over the next few months... there is no other way to say it but I bieve JPM/FDIC siezed a "Solvent Bank", and also took WMBfsb with it which should have never happened.
Either-way they could keep commons intact 51% and still preserve the NOLS so at a minimum if all the things I said come to pass we could be worth 23.5$/share all the way up to 47$/share or we could get badly defeated in court and lose all count of the cases which I described, but I don't see that as very likely at this point.
IMO DiamondGuru's 3x Value he's been rambling on forever about looks like it might actually become a reality and I'm pretty sure we might see this whole thing happen before 2011.
Either-way if you made it this far thanks for reading my long winded rant!
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