Replies to post #42203 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[glennob]

Lexus When you say 50 percent retracement, would that mean from the March low?

[PriceTeam]

Lexus, if we got a 50 percent retrace off the July lows, that would be astounding. The odds of a 50 percent retrace off the March lows anytime in the near future are so slim as to be incalculable IMHO.

Ted

[PriceTeam]

Lexus, to your and Golfin's credit, I do see the possibility of a very fast meltdown if the mood changes. Euphoria can turn to paranoia so fast it would make anyone's head spin if there's clear evidence of a double dip--which we may see evidence of soon enough. So far, the 2003 scenario *continues* to play out--amazingly. And it's blowing out of the water the idea that the 9-year cycle and sigma el are pointing down. If the 2003 scenario continues to play, then we should see a repeat of 2004--not 2002. Noticing how the 80-week low came in August 2004, and now we are expecting an 80-week low in the same period (July/August) of 2010. Fascinating.

Ted