Replies to post #86220 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ZGEN - HCV drug values Bristol is so Bristol shelling out so much money for lambda. I don't get it.

What seems odd to you about the ZGEN/BMY deal? The direct anti-viral HCV drugs are getting deals in the same ballpark ...

1) Market penetration odds for any given direct antiviral are, perhaps, 30% chance of 70% market share - where the 30% comes because there are so many antivirals in development (say 10 different drugs and 3 will make it to the big leagues in a triplet therapy)

2) Market penetration odds for IFN-L are, perhaps, 30% chance of 90% market share - where the 30% comes just because the consensus is that IFN will be obsoleted.

Note that in neither case did I discount for SAE issues, ... . Also note that I personally believe that the odds of still needing IFN after the direct anti-virals come on board is better than 30%. But I chose to be conservative to show the logic.

[dewophile]

"Bristol is so Bristol shelling out so much money for lambda. I don't get it."

I think it's not fair to say BMY has a history of overpaying. it all started with erbitux but that probably ended up being the best 2B they spent, and it was capped by BMY NOT paying more for imcl than they felt it was worth when LLY stepped in. we'll see how the medx takeover ends up, but if you compare it to say abgx/amgn deal for a similar antibody company with a late stage candidate and perhaps not as robust a pipeline it can be argued by that comparison they didn't overpay. who knows how zgen collaboration or the many others willplay out - certainly there will be some winners and losers - but to imply bristol overpays when it comes to collaborations at this point is i think not accurate or fair