ZGEN - HCV drug values Bristol is so Bristol shelling out so much money for lambda. I don't get it.
What seems odd to you about the ZGEN/BMY deal? The direct anti-viral HCV drugs are getting deals in the same ballpark ...
1) Market penetration odds for any given direct antiviral are, perhaps, 30% chance of 70% market share - where the 30% comes because there are so many antivirals in development (say 10 different drugs and 3 will make it to the big leagues in a triplet therapy)
2) Market penetration odds for IFN-L are, perhaps, 30% chance of 90% market share - where the 30% comes just because the consensus is that IFN will be obsoleted.
Note that in neither case did I discount for SAE issues, ... . Also note that I personally believe that the odds of still needing IFN after the direct anti-virals come on board is better than 30%. But I chose to be conservative to show the logic.
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