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RootOfTrust

11/10/09 1:50 PM

#183915 RE: hnstabe #183914

hnstabe, I really can't clarify the exact deferred revenue tally including how taking a part of current upgrades billings as revenue affects it going forward, if at all. What we do know is that they only take 25% of current upgrades billings as revenue and push the remaining 75% out over the next three quarters. As long as upgrades billings continue to increase q on q, the current q billings will continue to exceed upgrades revenue taken including that which is amortized from previous q's, in effect perpetuating the situation where revenue taken understates billings or cash flow.

If one thinks about it one realizes upgrades revenue taken will equal current upgrades billings only when the preceeding 3 q's average upgrades billings equals the current q's upgrades billings. Hopefully that won't become the case for a long, long time! Get it? In other words upgrades billings will grow exponentially each q for a long time to come and will thus remain signifcantly larger than the average of the 3 preceding q's. In theory that could/should happen given the volume and scope of Wave-bundled TPM software being shipped (enterprises will start using their Wave-enabled TPMs) as well as the ramping adoption of SEDs.
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Dory

11/10/09 3:41 PM

#183928 RE: hnstabe #183914

hnstabe, my guess as to the secrecy surrounding number of and revenues from upgrade sales is the fact that ERAS pricing is flexible depending on the customer and volume. If the number of ERAS sales and the revenues from such sales is made public, then customers can calculate the average price and they won't want to pay an above average price. That brings the average down, reducing margins. It may be frustrating to curious investors, but it's good business.

Cheers,

Dory