Replies to post #4341 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[MechanicalMethod]

I think the rallies are going to continue to be counter trend and short lived until the bear market is just as irrational as the bull was.

[OldAIMGuy]

HI Robo, I modeled the Nikkei for a good friend of mine in Japan. AIM did a very good job containing loss and then trading profitably once the bottom was finally reached. It was/is still a painful time, but AIM helped a lot.

This is pretty much the same story in the 1969-1982 period in our own markets. AIM did a pretty good job through '73, went 100% invested in '74 and then was "tradeless" for many months (actually more than a year) after the bottom was reached. Then it started to trade profitably out of the hole and by the time Buy&Hold was back to break-even, AIM was sporting a 50% gain. (this study was based on the Value Line Composite Index of 1700 stocks)

If we were prescient enough to avoid all calamities, we'd do better.

Best regards, Tom