All,
Focus on total billings, not reported revenue. That is the number that shows Wave's progress. I am replying to Ramsey's post. It illustrates the last five quarters of "total billings". Q3 included $3.9 million of revenue from Dell which I believe is exclusively bundling and SED royalties.
That leaves $1.3 million of other revenue. My believe is approximately $750K represents new upgrade revenue. The remaining $550K is comprised of TPM chip royalties(which will ultimately decline to near zero), Acer bundling revenue, esign revenue, and other sources such as government contracts.
It may not be legitimate to conclude a trend from two quarters, but it appears to me upgrade dollars have doubled in each of the past two quarters. Having said that, if upgrades double Q4 to Q3, all things being equal, Q4 would be $5.95 in "net billings".
On the conference call Steven made the plausible case that Q4 should be a stronger quarter than Q3, as for enterprise departments it is either spend it or lose it, so spending should increase. Dell bundling volume would reflect that spending.
Per Steven, Acer bundling volume is growing but we cannot verify that statement from the SEC filing, however I expect that is the case.
I believe SED volume will accelerate in Q4 based on greater availablity and drive choice.
There are positive signs for Esign.
Upgrade volume may accelerate. It is interesting to me that the upgrade volume rate of increase was much higher than SED volume. That may be evidence SED's are an additional catalyst for upgrade volume, not the sole driver of upgrade volume.
So I don't know if "all things" should be "viewed as equal" Q4 to Q3.
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