Replies to post #85559 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

idix

"Any guesses on who Idenix may be talking to?"

i think MRK/SGP has to be at the top of the list. 184 would be a great fit with boceprevir (why wait for their own polymerase to reach the clinic and be that much further behind roche and gild)

i think gild and vrtx should take a hard look, but if they seem sold on the fact a non-nuc is enough of a complement to their protease then they might not be biting

another player that i think would be high on the list is actually BMY. their NS5A inhibitor is much like a protease - high potency and (presumably) low resistance. complementing that type of drug with a lower potency higher barrier to resistance drug makes sense. they also have a protease in the preclinical stage

certainly there are other potentials, but one company that surely doesn't need 184 is roche (unless their current nuc bombs on renal tox)

PS: fwiw i think NVS would NOT have made as good a fit as some of the others i mentioned
PPS: a partnership may not be consummated until some 14 day data emerges

[wallstarb]

I don't think anyone will want it - NVS decision tainted the drug.

Think of the decision as if your job depended on it - if you licensed it after NVS passed and it eventually failed in phase 2 trials. Everyone would have pointed to the NVS as a red flag that the drug didnt work and you'd be out on the street.