Replies to post #1524 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[Myself °¿°]

right or wrong, I miss the art work. both drawings/ta up/down was cool.

imagespot will not upload anymore so I can't show you mine but it would be nice to see how close we read the "either/or"

[PENNYPRINCE 1]

Bull any opinions on golds and energy stocks over the bext few weeks? The overall market looks ready for a bounce to me.

[Bullwinkle]

>>>CYCLE/TREND Update for the Week Ahead>>>

Overview:
As mentioned in my previous update with which this post replies; The price of oil is nearing $55bbl which I expect to be taken out in short order, I also mentioned; At this time I basically expect us to continue in an awkward state of flux with a downward bias until after the election. Well we got the $55bbl oil and that state of flux was accompanied by some pretty volatile action although we did shoot up and nearly broke the downward bias before being repelled by the 200SMA and upper trendline resistance. Before going any further, let's review this weeks Econ #'s...

Economic #'s:
This week we got our usual mixed bag of readings, Building Permits and Housing Starts were down. Core CPI rose slightly while CPI remained flat. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 329K or 16K less than expected while LEI came in flat and the Philly Fed stronger than expected.

Next week will be somewhat busier starting with Existing Home Sales, then Consumer Confidence, Durable Orders, New Home Sales, Fed's Beige Book, Initial Claims, GDP, prelim Michigan Sentiment and Chicago PMI.

As a side note, earnings continue to disappoint and the forward guidance is less than promising. This has not been limited to just technology as all sectors in some form or another has had its share of warnings. While many companies have put up better YoY results, the current quarters' results in many cases are missing by a penny or two. While this did not constitute a warning per se', it certainly can create some shockwaves as seen with AMZN. What happens over the Christmas season and the final quarter of the year should be watched closely with retail as the main canary. I would expect a moderately good holiday season, but if the trend of misses or just meeting expectations with poor guidance should continue through the holiday season then this would send a warning shot across the bow of Wall Street that the implied soft patch may be more than a little disruption ahead.

What can we expect now?:
With today's downdraft and it supposedly being within the timeframe of a Bradley turn scheduled for on/around Oct 22-25, we should continue to see more selling pressure. It is difficult to say with this bipolar market although The COMP may finally be following the INDU and SPX which have been warning us for some time of a coming dowturn. And while I would like to declare that this is it and the COMP will fall, the COMP has been reluctant to follow. I am still waiting for the 2nd of 2 indicators to confirm an absolute downtrend and until it does we continue to have divergences that may play out in either direction. As stated last week, I believe we will remain in a state of flux with downward bias and lots of volatility until the major indices line up and follow the same trend. As for now, that trend could go either way.

NOTE: I continue to hold a USPIX position

Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do. It is to let people know what I am doing and what I think about current market conditions...