Replies to post #1611 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[Bullwinkle]

CYCLE/TREND Update EDIT:

In the Econ #'s I made a typo -- Building Permits were up for the week not down, only Housing Starts were down... #msg-4365007

Sorry 'bout that >8^)

[Bullwinkle]

>>>CYCLE/TREND Update for the Week Ahead>>>

Overview:
The last couple of weeks have been full of volatility, it's been a wild ride. As mentioned in my previous update with which this post replies; With today's downdraft and it supposedly being within the timeframe of a Bradley turn scheduled for on/around Oct 22-25, we should continue to see more selling pressure. WRONG!.. Actually that Friday turned out to be the local bottom and the turn was to the upside. These charts I had posted earlier in the week #msg-4384147 shows Oil & Gold topping with a consolidation phase being overdue. If anything would lead to upside in the markets it would be the downside in oil, that and support for the indices due to the upcoming election (yes, I believe they are being propped up). Not that it really matters, but wish I had looked at $WTIC prior to the 26th before having made a call for more selling pressure on the 22nd. Anywho, let's review last weeks Econ #'s...

Economic #'s:
Well no surprise here, more of the same mixed signals. This only goes to show that the economy is in a very fragile state. We have not seen a string of consistent numbers this year for anymore than a couple of weeks at a time. Existing Home Sales as well as New Home Sales were up slightly while Mortgage approvals dropped for the 4th month in a row and Consumer Confidence hit a 7-month low. Durable Orders dipped and Initial Jobless Claims were up by an additional 15K to 350K. Michigan Sentiment and Chicago PMI came in strong and then we get a weaker than expected GDP at 3.7%. We also got the Fed's Beige Book accompanied by the same old song and dance. You can read about it here ---> http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20041027/bs_afp/us_economy_beige_041027185333

I don't know about you, but I do not see how these talking heads can claim that this economy is strong or in some cases the strongest they have seen in 20 years. Do they really believe that? I mean, how can anyone make these claims with numbers like these week in and week out? You do not need to be a rocket scientist to see that we are teetering between a "possible" recovery and falling off of a cliff... Strength? The only real strength I see is in the powerful massaging of numbers and pysche. We are now on the cusp of what is being called the most important election of our lives. Even if there is a clear and decisive winner (whoever that may be), they will be left with a big heaping sack of manure to deal with.

Anyway, on deck for the week to come we have Auto/Truck Sales, Personal Income and Spending, Construction Spending, ISM Index and Services, Factory Orders, Consumer Credit, Initial Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate. A busy busy week and if ever these numbers did not matter, it is this coming week...

What can we expect now?:
Earlier in the week I posted COMP Bull vs Bear Scenario charts #msg-4384151 which are still valid for the most part with a break to either direction still being played out... Oil seems to be consolidating for another run to new highs and the same may be said for Gold. How soon this takes place could be as early as this coming week. As for the COMP and other indices, we are about to get some resolution. Whether the election results are clear, undecided, whatever, I believe it will bring hell or high water! The INDU and SPX recovered and joined the COMP which held steadfast during their declines. As for the COMP, it is now at the top of the BBand Range (has been bouncing between the top and mid-range for months), the $CPC is at a moderate .73, $BPCOMPQ nearing a double top, $NAHL is near a top, $NASI seems to be forming a nice H&S pattern and $NAAD is flat or ready to break in either direction. All of this aside, we are also scheduled for another Bradley turn on/around the 5th, how convenient for such an event to occur so close to the election >8^)

NOTE: I continue to hold a USPIX position, if a rally appears imminent I will flip this position to the UOPIX

Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do. It is to let people know what I am doing and what I think about current market conditions...