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jenna

07/23/02 6:48 PM

#6848 RE: jenna #6846

BZH beat earnings and guided higher.. now if RYL has a good report tomorrow before the open, we might conceivably have that bounce in building sector continue. At least there is something to watch. The difference between us and others is that we don't expect much of a general across the board bottom, but rather a recovery first of the companies that have beat the estimates, have guided higher, and are not trading already with high p/e's. The tech sector is not as attractive as some of the others just yet.
Looking for a bottom is a lesson in futility, why waste this incredible downside? At this level, we do agree that we don't hold "gobs of shorts" into the close, but leaving a nice short osition will "secure" your participation in another 'sell into rally". The risks are still more on the long side and by SWING SHORTS.. you can be ready to take a small loss in case of a sudden rally (which has not happened from the time of the QLGC rally) as your stops are trailing to keep up with the profits.

By staying out of the market and waiting on the sidelines you would have missed all the shorts in technology, biotechnology, banking, internet pigs.. etc from just April (last quarter's earnings reports) which would have been 3 full months of short plays.

The beauty is when the market does rally a bit ( a full 3 days is a rally), we will be ready to get some upside even with a small 'overlap' that is inevitable although even that hasn't happened yet. You should learn from some losses but they should only be trading losses OCCASIONALLY, not the monster losses of the bulls trying to time this market and telling you "Don't Trade on the short side because market internals are oversold" They have been oversold for 3 months now!!!

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jenna

07/23/02 7:21 PM

#6849 RE: jenna #6846

July 25. watch WLP, CYH..and back to LH (July 24). We must follow up our plays or we'll end up just scanning for 'peanuts' or worse, buy at intraday resistance, just as the stocks pull back. Couldn't care less about this technical rally, what will CONFIRM the rally will be ONLY THE REPORT ON JULY 25. Until then we MIGHT have some "anticipatory upswing" in case the sector continues to rally. You need BOTH TECHNICAL and FUNDAMENTAL indicators to work in harmony to have a successful rally from now on..

Sometimes the fundamentals won't even be enough, but surely the technicals alone ARE NEVER ENOUGH. Recovery I would expect FIRST for the health care and financials. What can precipate a longer lasting rally (more than 1 to 2 hours) will NOT BE OVERSOLD market internals but sure signs of EARNINGS ACCELERATION.

LH part of the Medical/Dental-Services Group and like XRAY might be headed towards a rally. LH expects to release second quarter financial results at approximately 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 24, 2002. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=425346

You can see how little technical rallies determine reversals with our prior LH chart.

CYH and WLP