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Draw the lines
Prior support at 9450 will now be Resistance, as will 9500/9550. Whenever prior support turns into resistance it is a sign of a downtrend. So I would Anticipate a retest of 9350 for possible support, which may or may not hold, if selling pressure comes in Tuesday. Most Sept the markets do a Major pullback to retest lower support, in this case possibly 9000 or 8000. So if the last bump wasn't used as an exit or to set Stops on Longs then I would make sure and have them in place on Tuesday. Not a confirmed downtrend yet but if any more selling pressure comes in the markets usually move down faster than they move up, so use Caution with Longs.
Cash is usually King when the markets are undecided.
Good Trading!
Market correction in September?
The first week of Sept is usually the last hurrah for Bullishness as Usually the markets correct through Sept expiration.
May or may not get a rollover?
The morning dip found some support but now the market might see renewed resistance? Would definitely use some caution if Long and set some Stops and lock in some profits. The first week of Sept is Usually where the markets start to turn weak but things might be starting a bit early, maybe. Consolidate into middle of next week would also be a possibility. I think by next Thursday the markets will look for a downside correction though, if not earlier. Will just have to watch and see.
Good Trading!
OZRK looks Interesting
Insiders were cashing in their shares Apr/May around $25 a share so most probably saw this downturn. Now that the price is considerably lower it is worth looking at. Most of the price movement around Earnings was After the report, and then only around $2-4 of movement. Not sure what created the big volume price swing on 6/20/08 but the fact it did not hold support looks bearish. Perhaps safest to just watch it right up to the day it reports to see if it gets a relief rally With the report. Monthly lows in 8/07, 11/07, 3/08 and this May were all right before the reports. Even then the relief rallies of 3-4 pts sold off to retest support. The primary trading range is 2-4 pts so not much room for a play unless a good report sees some short covering? Did not look to check the short interest on it but that would definitely be something to consider. If you can put up a chart showing the Earnings then you will see the movement I am talking about. I can't print the Java chart I am using to show the dates and numbers.
Good Trading!
Good Luck to All! :^)
PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN!
OZRK: expects to report second quarter earnings at the end of business Thursday, July 10, 2008.
Hopefully this one moves up next week into earnings.
Rural Banks to Benefit From Agricultural Boom
by: Timothy Siegel posted on: July 01, 2008
Between the subprime meltdown, potential losses from banks getting stuck on the LBO bridge and losses from loans to builders, investors are beginning to wonder if there is any part of the financial services sector worth serious consideration. Perhaps the place to look is down on the farm, where rural banks are bound to benefit from good times for farmers. They may not be in hog heaven just yet, but rural banks at least have some upside, to reward investors for risking the downside. And of course there is a downside, because even in rural areas a lot of loans have been made to home builders and home owners, some of whom will run into trouble.
But for the investor who has watched the potash miners and the agricultural chemical and equipment suppliers soar to ever new heights, and who is wondering if there are any stocks related to agriculture that are not so expensive that one must think once, twice, three times before purchasing, rural banks represent an inviting opportunity. They are a reasonably priced way to get in on the price of corn, which is as high as an elephant’s eye, right now.
One of my favorites is Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK), which is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas. Now, I know that Little Rock is not immune to the suburban problems of falling home prices that have beset banks across the country. But I have it on the authority of the Bank of the Ozarks' website, that they do make agricultural loans, too. They have offices all around the state of Arkansas, and a few in north‑east Texas and North Carolina. After getting pummeled in the recent pummeling of regional banks they made a statement on Friday, June 20th that they expected to hit their previously announced financial targets, amid mild write downs, and continued to be well capitalized. Their stock went up again, from 15.79 to 17.88. But now it’s down to 14.86, with a trailing P/E of 7.83. Does somebody know something bad, like they did for Bear Stearns (BSC)?
I feel it is a risk worth taking, because of the strength of the farm economy both minimizes risk and, together with the exceptionally low price, creates the possibility of real reward. More money for farmers means more to save at the local bank. And people with more money have more confidence to use the credit cards issued by the local bank. Banks, as much as any business, rely on the health of their local area economy. And Arkansas will be a major beneficiary of high crop prices. Plus, if Arkansas has suffered from flooding, it certainly has not been damaged to the extent that Iowa and Wisconsin have been.
Another stock I like is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC). This banking corporation is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas. Now I can guarantee you that this is not a company that is paying too much for office rent. Simmons has not been driven down to the extent that Bank of the Ozarks has, but it has fallen a little and represents a good value, with a trailing P/E of 13.41. And Simmons is even more rural then Bank of the Ozarks.
So shuck that suit and tie for a pair of overalls. And shuck the complexity and opacity of big city banks, for the simplicity and semi transparency of their country cousins, the rural banks.
Disclosure: I do own some OZRK in my own portfolio and have both OZRK and SFNC in my mFolio portfolio, which has been receiving investments.
Current Price 15.95 after popping to over $19 when they reiterated thier guidance
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Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Reaffirms Guidance and Provides Additional Information
Thursday June 19, 6:00 pm ET
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (NASDAQ: OZRK - News) is providing the following information for the benefit of stockholders in response to the heightened activity in its common stock on the NASDAQ Global Select Market in recent days. While it is the Company’s normal policy to not comment on unusual trading activity or changes in the Company’s quoted stock price or to provide updated guidance between quarterly conference calls, the Company has recently received numerous inquiries requesting updated guidance in light of recent developments in the financial sector.
Since issuance of the Company’s news release on April 10, 2008 announcing the Company’s first quarter 2008 earnings and the Company’s conference call on April 11, 2008 in which its first quarter results were discussed and future guidance given, the Company has not disclosed any material new information or altered such guidance.
Stockholders and other interested parties are encouraged to listen to the recorded playback of the April 11, 2008 conference call which is available on the Company’s website www.bankozarks.com. While actual results for some categories of income and expense may vary somewhat from the guidance provided, the Company believes that, in the aggregate, the guidance provided in such conference call is still appropriate in material respects.
In response to specific inquiries from stockholders, the Company is reiterating previously issued guidance and providing additional information as follows:
The Company has stated that one of its goals for 2008 is to achieve record net interest income in each quarter, as it did in the first quarter of 2008, and the Company continues to believe this is a reasonable goal. The Company expects to accomplish this goal by growing loans and leases from the low teens to the high teens in percentage terms in 2008 and maintaining or improving net interest margin from the level achieved in the fourth quarter of 2007.
While the Company continues to expect that its ratios of nonperforming loans and leases, nonperforming assets and past-due loans and leases will increase during 2008 due to current and expected economic conditions, the Company continues to believe that (i) its primary markets in Arkansas, Texas and North Carolina have been and will be less significantly impacted by economic weakness than some other markets, (ii) its ratios for nonperforming loans and leases, nonperforming assets and past due loans and leases will continue to compare favorably to such ratios for the industry as a whole and (iii) the Company’s expected net charge-off ratio for the full year of 2008 will be in a mid-20’s and low-30’s basis point range.
The Company continues to believe that it is on track to achieve its paramount goal for 2008, which is to once again return to a record quarterly earnings pace at some time during the year.
In addition to the guidance above, the Company expects to continue its regulatory status as “well capitalized†and has no present plans to raise additional equity capital.
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Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Increases Quarterly Dividend
Tuesday July 1, 6:19 pm ET
LITTLE ROCK, Ark.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (NASDAQ: OZRK - News) announced its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend and increased the dividend to $0.13 per common share. This dividend is payable August 1, 2008 to shareholders of record as of July 25, 2008.
Did BBY have an Early report this month?
It seems only two months ago it had it's earnings out 4/30 and on the calendar I see again on 6/17?
Really disappointed in myself as this was a classic example of a stock to have a sell on it's report. I was discussing a potential trade scenario with someone after the first week of the month anticipating the earnings would be out in July. I didn't plan to look at it again until this week.
My mistake, ugh.
Tops in July, Oct, Dec, Apr and June were all runnups ahead of earnings reports, which sold on the report. This is an example of repeating patterns you want to watch for in reviewing potential earning plays.
If anyone has stocks they are interesting in targeting a trading plan for earnings then feel free to post or pm me.
Good Trading Everyone!
Hi jjkool
That breakdown at 5 looks critical. Would expect it to now be resistance but this stock might have another spike in it. Looks like a very long slide.
Might want to reshort it on the next bump up?
Good Trading!
AI
