The high oil prices will further squeeze consumer and together with creeping interest rates could cause a consumer led recession to take hold, due to lack of growth in end demand. If job growth would have been substantial (#msg-3744943, and #msg-3318702), that consumer led recession could have been delayed, but I think Welles is right, we should start and feel a recession around mid year next year, that means the current map with a February nassacre is probably not too far from what the market might actually do.
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