Replies to post #84839 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

ARYx -

I think its a bit concerning that they need to play poker with potential partners.

As with most small biotech I would suggest that it isn't just that big pharma tries to take too much advantage - but also that the small biotech is unreasonable in their expectations. It is, after all, selling their child, which is, as every parent will tell you, the perfect child.

What is interesting is that it is very predictable. With the exception of a few biotechs almost all biotechs seem to fall way short of their predictions for when they will partner.

PS My guess (based upon personal experience within an entirely different industry), is that biotech management stinks at negotiations just like the technical teams I know.

[mcbio]

Re: ARYX

In any case I lightened my holdings by about 50% last week assuming a delay till Q1 of 10.

I assume you got in just after the tecarfarin debacle at a much lower price and are just taking some profits off the table (never any shame in taking some good profits). Otherwise, I wouldn't (and in fact have not) sell shares at this point. If you are reasonably confident a significant deal is going to get done for budiodarone at some point, whether that be in one month or by 1Q10, then why sell now? The stock still looks pretty cheap to me at this point even after the nice rebound after the tecarfarin debacle as it's still at a sub-$100 million market cap.