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brembo

10/07/09 5:37 PM

#106939 RE: diamondguru-one #106938

I think a straight cash settlement will cause more issues with shareholders of JPMC than a stock swap personally. I think that cash would set off quite a few red flags with their investors.
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gadsen

10/07/09 5:51 PM

#106942 RE: diamondguru-one #106938

If they do go with a swap I'm going to immediately short a bunch of JPM stock. Can you imagine the selling that would go on if they gave us shares of JPM? lol.

Just my opinion.....
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concreteman

10/07/09 6:19 PM

#106950 RE: diamondguru-one #106938

it will be cash
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Desperado90

10/07/09 6:30 PM

#106953 RE: diamondguru-one #106938

Thats too much cash in this climate. Thats like a major run on them and there wouldn't any good way to spin it.

I suspect they would buy the maximum legally acceptable and use subsidiaries to accumulate more.

Example if they bought about 300M shares of WAMU.

Then we get a 4:1 swap, they would save themselves a ton of cash.

1.7B/4 = 425M shares of JPM.
300M/4 = 075M shares of JPM
Total JPM OS Dilution = 350M shares.

They would then get the FDIC to chip in $7-8B as part of deal which would cover liabilities (Note and Bondholders).

Finally, $26B was book value but CASH is king. JPM paying cash instead of paper would be the wrong approach to their advantage but for me it doesn't matter how I get paid. Just Pay Me.

Remember with cash, you can leverage 10:1 conservatively or 20-30:1 if you are JPM.

GLTY.
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Nightdaytrader

10/07/09 7:49 PM

#106967 RE: diamondguru-one #106938

Diamondguru-one, no I don't think so... Right now, none of the banks can give away billions of dollars in cash.. That would hurt their balance sheets and the government oversight would increase... that's not what the banks want right now. In addition, the FDIC is broke... So if the FDIC can't get a big loan from treasury, then JPM will have to cover the whole settlement by issuing stock... about 550M shares to cover a 3:1 WAMUQ to JPM stock swap.

JMHO.

ND9