Replies to post #4063 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Toofuzzy]

Hi Nitelord: In answer to your question:

YES

But seriously:

Lets say you bought the DOW, S+P500, or QQQ about seven years ago(just for arguments sake).

When the market went up to (in 20-20 hindsite)rediculus levels would you have sold out? Would your forehead hurt a year later as the market kept going up?

Or would you have held on past the peak and have looked at the drops as buying oportunities and about a year ago have your forehead start hurting as you bang it against the nearest wall or desk.

Would you have any fingernails left?

I started AIMing about seven years ago with two mutual funds I already owned. For the first five years all I did was sell. I was kicking myself that I was giving up 20% profits per year(on paper)for 5% in a Money Market fund. But that has given me the cash to buy in durring the current downturn.

I have made two mistakes (which I will not elaborate here as I have posted about them in the past) and both have to do with not following AIM "BY The Book".

AIM has allowed me to invest unemotionally and without thinking "Should I wait till it goes a few points higher till I sell" or "Should I wait till it goes a few points lower before I buy". AIM tells me when to buy and sell. I "JUST" have to decide what to invest in.

Still
Toofuzzy

Take the road less traveled. It will make all the difference.

[Rien]

Hi nitelord,

As to your test, how did AIM and LTBH end up?
OK, the VALUE of the portfolio's is probably about equal. But what about the number of shares? That is were the difference comes in, and what will make ALL the difference in the future (assuming this bear will indeed end someday GGG)


Best,
Rien.

[Charlie S3]

I have to agree with Nitelord.

I've been intrigued with AIM for sometime, but the reality seems to fall short of Lichello's prose. I've been using the evaluation version of AI recently and find it very difficult to select stocks and parameters that beat B&H. If it's hard in hindsight it seems impossible to do looking forward.

I'm also curious as to why the subject of risk is never addressed. Conventionally risk is measured by the standard deviation - thus not hard to do with a spreadsheet.

It seems to me that AIM requires risky stocks, then tempers the risk by being partly in cash - but the final risk is never evaluated. I could accept a return approximating that of B&H if the risk was less than the B&H risk.

I also agree with Nitelord that this is an uncommonly friendly and intelligent board, I just wish I had more confidence in AIM. I really feel that there is value in using different investment methods as a form of diversification. X_Dev has caught my attention, especially since it relies more on visual input when optimizing parameters.

Hope I can become more comfortable with AIM.

Charlie

[Conrad]

NiteLord, We should trade names!

It's 4 o'clock in the Sarurday morning here in Dutchland and I am burning the midnight oil, and a long list of messages to work through is in front of me.

I believe you have identified the severe limitations of the Lichello AIM. I think it is a beast that sits in a prisson. The Vortex AIM(and others like it) have let the beast out.

Give me a stock history that you think is a dud for AIMing and I show you what Vortex AIM can do....No flatliners of course!

OK OK OK I agree that optimization on historical stock gives unreal answers but I say that you can optimise on the run and do what AIM BTB can not do.



Conrad