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Conrad

07/18/02 7:12 AM

#4044 RE: MechanicalMethod #4040

The Vortex AIM is Caddilac instead of a Ford Pinto

Conrad
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Qarel

07/18/02 8:56 AM

#4047 RE: MechanicalMethod #4040

Hi MM,

Yes, I was wondering what you would make of Conrad's answer. The stuff is there, but you have to dig it up yourself. Let me give it a try and let's start at Lichello AIM.

Lichello AIM is a holding strategy where you invest part of the money you allocate to a stock in shares. The AIM algorithm then has you selling and buying as the price rises or falls.

The standard AIM buy is based on the difference between Portfolio Control (Portfolio Control starts at the value of your initial investment) and Share Value. From this difference you subtract the Safe Amount (=Safe Percentage * Share Value). If there is enough left for a meaningful trade, execute the trade. Extra: after a buy, update PC with 50% of the value of the trade. An AIM sell goes the same, but without updating PC.

In formulas:
Buy = (Portfolio Control - Share Value) - (Safe % * Share Value)

  • New PC = PC + (Buy / 2)
  • This formula is equivalent to 2.2 in #msg-4018; 2.1 is the Vortex formula.

    Now Vortex. Vortex also starts with the difference between PC and SV. This difference is multiplied by the buy (sell) factor. If this results in a meaningful amount to trade, execute the trade. After each transaction, PC is reset to the current Share Value. So for a buy we get these formulas:

    Buy = (PC - SV) * Buy Factor
    New PC = New SV (fixed at the price of the last trade)

    A Vortex sell goes exactly the same.

    There are two important differences:

    1. In AIM, Portfolio Control can only rise; it reflects the initial amount bought, and half of the total of all buys since inception. In Vortex, PC reflects the SV directly after the last transaction.

    2. In AIM, there is one hurdle and one turnstile. Safe is the hurdle: you only buy/sell the amount over the hurdle. Your minimum trade (say 5% of your position, or a fixed $$$ amount) is the turnstile: if the trade is bigger, it passes. In Vortex, there is only the turnstile. The buy and sell factors decide how quickly you get through.

    How these differences work out is largely a matter of the actual settings. Vortex is more flexible, and it could be more aggressive, but also more conservative than AIM. Vortex only has a short term memory of the trading history, because Portfolio control only reflects the last trade. AIM 'remembers' all buys in PC, which becomes a kind of target for your portfolio. This might be the most important difference: in Vortex, PC guides the next trade, no more; in AIM, PC stands for the 'ideal' value of the equity portion of your portfolio.

    HTH,

    Karel

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