Replies to post #3877 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

Dew,
Nearly every binary bio event can have third more neutral possibilities. Why do you think bio's data dredge? :-) That's the risk in playing straddles.

Depending of course on where agix is trading at the time, I'd argue your #2,3,4,5 and 6 scenario's all would smash agix stock.

Even #2, assuming a need for a 2nd and larger pivotal trial and multi year delay would be considered a negative outcome.

BTW: I think Topol's comments were a little over the top and not entirely fair. They had fda permission to take an interim look and took a statistical hit for it. And what do the Dr's care what agix share price did? I don't think that's their place. Full data set in Dec, we'll see.

[Skeptic]

Who knew on AGIX - even the bullish analysts are/were only giving stastically significant plaque regression a 10% chance. I haven't listened to the conference call yet, but I'm curious whether AGIX has to include those data points they threw out when they determine if there is a statistically significant regression in patients once all the data points are in? How many were thrown out and how many will be included in the FINAL analysis?

Dew- I noticed you mentioned intent to treat - does the company have an obligation to show these numbers instead of the scans they actually analyzed? When CART-II is said and done, does AGIX begin a phase III attempting to repeat CART-II results or just use ARISE results? Can they get a positive labelling based on a combination of CART-II and ARISE results?

As for you #3 "3. No benefit in reducing SAE’s but a statistically significant reduction in plaque volume on an intent-to-treat basis (i.e. no cherry picking of data)."

I don't think this is possible to show plaque regression and have no benefit in reducing SAE's - or at least extremely unlikely.

As for whether it's binary - scenario 1 will lead to a 50 dollar stock price and all other scenarios will lead to a major sell-off IMO, so I think it's still binary, but the event won't happen until next year.

In the short-term, if the final analysis confirms the interim, they will bought or partnered quickly and that 50 dollar stock price will probably happen this year.