Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>> I think the bottom line for agix is the arise-events trial will be the new binary event and a HUGE one at that. <<

Is ARISE really a binary event? I can think of more than two outcomes (ordered from best to worst):

1. ARISE shows a statistically significant lower incidence of heart attacks and other cardiovascular SAE’s for AGI-1067 relative to placebo.

2. As above but a close miss instead of a hit (p>.05 and <.10).

3. No benefit in reducing SAE’s but a statistically significant reduction in plaque volume on an intent-to-treat basis (i.e. no cherry picking of data).

4. As in #3, but a close miss instead of a hit.

5. No benefit in either a reduction of SAE’s or plaque volume. Nevertheless, AGIX continues development of AGI-1067, perhaps reverting to the original indication of reducing restenosis in stent patients.

6. AGIX nixes the entire AGI-1067 program.

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If you are going to conduct a backgammon type of analysis on the various outcomes, it looks like you have more than two dice sequences to consider