Replies to post #6398 on Marketgems Earnings Trader- Trading Strong or Weak (MKTGEMS)

[madrose1]

Biotech earns dates (thnx for the response on ESIO, ADTN RLRN...ESIO's fundies don't look healthy)

MLNM -->7/16 (tues) in the A/H...
Then GENZ 7/17 (Weds) in the am , with IDPH that night ...
These seem to be kicking off major Biotech reportings this sesason , with BGEN following 7/18 (thurs) in the am.

* Always fun when they report in the am <G>

ABGX=7/23...ests= -41c
ADRX=7/26...ests=9c
AFFX=7/24...ests=1c
AMGN=7/24....ests=34c
BGEN=7/18....ests=31c
CEPH=7/5....ests=21c
CHIR=7/24 ...est= 27c
CELG=7/25? ...est=.0.0
GILD=7/30...ests=3c
GENZ=7/17...est=26c
ICOS=7/25...ests=-54c
IDPH=7/17...est=19c
IMCL=8/15...ests= -41c
IMNX=??
MEDI=7/25...ests= -12c
MLNM=7/16....ests= -19c
MYGN=8/6...ests

all dates need to be checked , from briefing.com

[madrose1]

EBAY making a move here A/H to over $59 from $57 close ...

DJ S&P 500 To Add EBay, Principal Financial, Electronic Arts

Also: *DJ S&P 500 To Add Goldman Sachs, UPS, Prudential Financial

05:44 PM- - 05 44 PM EDT 07-09-02

[jenna]

How to prepare for potential rally..NCEN EBAY and ABK

July (except for Friday, of course) was time to short the second tier of stocks like ERTS, TIF, BBY, SNPS and WBSN. We are so bearish because of the combination of TECHNICAL and FUNDAMENTAL WEAKNESS that consumes this market with ferocious alacrity. Market Internals are horrible and so are fundamental realities and cap that off with investor confidence that is weak. When you have basically shorted just about every "list" you have you make plans for possible "bear flag recoveries" in technology/biotechnology while looking for swing plays (1 to 3 sessions) on the long side in TECHNICAL/FUNDAMENTAL earnings plays.

ABAC FINANCIAL Ambac Finl Group Inc has a rank of A, which is in the 94th percentile of all stocks in the Investor's Business Daily database and a leader in the Insurance-Prop/Cas/Titl group. Here is where I'd like to look for recovery in a sector that still is trading near a key RISING moving average while the junk stocks are wallowing in "v-shape" unconvincing recoveries.

FIRST HURDLE is that there might NOT be a recovery with the announcement after the close of the HIG shortfall(another sector leader). That is what puts ABK, FNF, FBF again on the "sink or swim list". There is nothing in a daily close that will signify more than putting a stock in a position where it is POISED or COILED to GO EITHER WAY. A bullish engulfing does NOT mean the stock will move in the direction of the reversal any more than a bearish engulfing means we are at the end of upside for that particular stock or sector. IT TAKES A LOT MORE to cause a price/momentum/volume move the following session, which explains why scalpers are so unsure of their 'positions'.

SECOND HURDLE: FNF and NCEN have always been good strong earnings plays but together with FBF and now ABK we are seeing unraveling of this strong sector. Will this continue? Will ONE and FITB start to move even lower and cause further deterioration? Its ONLY when this downside reverses that I would consider long positions in these sectors (as well as other listed "earnings plays for upside" and only AFTER they so signs of strength (perhaps by 10:15) take a peek at the technology/biotechnology "dogs" for the "steeper profit" which is so predictable of the one day rally. This can all be accomplished by 10:00 to 10:30 if you stick with your PLAN. Scanning intraday will throw you for a loop and cause confusion.

The caveat here is that without the DOW and financials/ or Insurance-Prop/Cas/Titl, any nasdaq rally will be sold into by 10:00 defeating a rally strategy and leading to "bull traps".

My favorite semiconductors/biotech shorts have had 2-3 days of strong downside and today it was time to cover the shorts (and get out of any remaining July puts, though not August) waiting to see if we might another third day tomorrow but not counting on it. If the strong companies don't carry a rally tomorrow, count on it that the Nasdaq alone won't be able to accomplish this with the likes of CIEN, JNPR, WCOME or KLAC.

Now we look to the stronger stocks (which is why we had CHBS, NCEN, MHK, PDX, OCA, ABX, NEM, LNCR that were watch list longs longs CONCURRENT with the "old faithful" shorts. When we tried to hang onto a stock like "FLEX or SEBL" it was thwarted immediately. Its when the shorts are covered and those longs have had their 2 to 4 days of upside that we need to look for more opportunities. Now is the best time for more opportunities.



If we see companies like ONE, FITB moving up, as examples of companies that are still near key RISING KEY MOVING averageresistance levels, we might peek to some of the former SHORTED stocks like WBSN, even RIMM or JNPR.

b) Relatively Strong Sectors whose sector leaders have been down lately (i.e. WBSN SNPS great examples)


c) "Friendly" sector leaders like EBAY which like a 'friendly puppy' will look for any reason to "make their lovers/owners happy"

d) stock sectors that lead rallies like financials and the S&P.

e) Only then will I look at my favorite junk stocks (the Hope Float stocks like RMBS, NTAP, CRUS, ELON, JNPR, PWAV etc)