Replies to post #3788 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Qarel]

Hi Tim,

no, I meant that already with 'some kind of random walk'. I am afraid I am rather ingnorant of these kinds of things (thanks for explaining autocorrelation!). The variations are your 'random values mapped to a gaussian distribution', or what was it again. I had the idea of a random walk because these things can "trend" and "trade" spontaneously, or so I understand. And perhaps the fixed step is not much of a problem either, underneath your variations.

Regards,

Karel

[jibes]

Tim

A long time ago I generated random Corn prices using +/- 1 penney incremental moves (just to keep it simple) from -10 cents to +10 cents as these were the limit moves corn could take. I was amazed at the results. When I ploted these out on a chart it looked just like the real corn charts.

I concluded comodities prices were randomly generated which indeed they must be. Still my charts had all the same patterns. And did it matter if they were random or not. Perhaps I was dealing with a natural effect.

Jibes
AIM Re Bal at:
http://jibes0.tripod.com/trendseeker.html