On 3 October voters in the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia go to the polls to elect a successor to President Vladislav Ardzinba. The Abkhaz Constitution bars Ardzinba, the republic's wartime leader, from serving a third five-year presidential term.
A total of six candidates registered for the ballot, of whom one, Vice President Valerii Arshba, subsequently withdrew. Popular former Interior Minister Aleksandr Ankvab was denied registration on the grounds that he had not lived in Abkhazia for most of the previous five years, and that he refused to sit an Abkhaz-language test (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 August and 2 September 2004). Ankvab left Abkhazia in 1993 for Moscow, where he went into business; he reportedly has close connections with Turkey's Abkhaz community, according to "Moskovskaya pravda" on 24 September. The Abkhaz Supreme Court upheld the Central Election Commission's refusal to register Ankvab, Caucasus Press reported on 11 September, whereupon Ankvab threw his support behind Chernomorenergo head Sergei Bagapsh. According to "Moskovskaya pravda," Bagapsh has offered Ankvab the post of prime minister in the event he is elected.
Initially, most observers anticipated an easy victory for Prime Minister Raul Khadjimba, whom Ardzinba endorsed as his preferred successor in August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 August 2004). Russian President Vladimir Putin has likewise signaled his approval of Khadjimba (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 August 2004), as has Khazrat Sovmen, president of the neighboring Republic of Adygeya, Caucasus Press reported on 18 September. Sovmen praised Khadjimba's professionalism and described him as a decent human being capable of resolving Abkhazia's economic problems.
Russian journalists, too, describe the 46-year-old Khadjimba -- who began his career in the KGB, fought in the 1992-93 war, and then served as Abkhazia's security chief, first deputy prime minister, and defense minister -- as honest and capable. Since being named prime minister in April 2003, Khadjimba, dubbed "the Abkhaz Putin," has functioned as de facto leader in place of Ardzinba, who for the past few years has been incapacitated by an unidentified illness. Khadjimba presided over a modest economic upswing, cemented economic ties with various Russian regions, and engineered the granting of Russian citizenship to those Abkhaz who applied for it -- a privilege that entitles the holder to the minimum Russian pension.
Khadjimba is nonetheless at a disadvantage in that he reportedly does not enjoy the support either of the Abkhaz parliament or of any major political party. By contrast, Bagapsh, perceived as his sole serious rival, has the support of a bloc comprising the Amtsakhara union of veterans of the 1992-93 war and United Abkhazia (the two bodies merged earlier this summer), the Federation of Independent Trade Unions, and the opposition movement Aitaira, which initially backed Ankvab. Bagapsh, who is 55 and a former first secretary of the Abkhaz Obkom of the Georgian Kosmomol is, like Khadjimba, regarded as pragmatic and a competent economist. He too served for several years as prime minister, from 1997 to October 1999.
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" observed on 27 September that the programs of all candidates are very similar: all rule out any compromise settlement with Georgia that would undercut the republic's proclaimed independence, and all advocate close cooperation with Russia, especially in the economic field. There are, however, a few key differences: Khadjimba advocates constitutional reforms that would reduce the powers of the president and enhance those of the parliament, according to Caucasus Press on 4 September. Bagapsh for his part was quoted by regnum.ru on 2 September as saying he is ready to form a coalition government in which all political parties and movements would be represented. Bagapsh also stressed the need to win the trust and support of the largely Georgian population of Abkhazia's southernmost Gali Raion. The Gali Georgians fled at the end of the 1992-93 war, and not all have returned. While the Abkhaz authorities have not deliberately placed obstacles in the path of those wishing to return, those Georgians who risk doing so are frequently targeted by Abkhaz criminal bands, and most schools in Gali have Abkhaz as the language of instruction; two do not teach Georgian at all, according to Caucasus Press on 29 September. The need for measures to facilitate repatriation of displaced Georgians to Gali is routinely stressed in the UN Secretary Council's six-monthly resolutions on Abkhazia.
According to a poll of 830 students at Abkhaz State University summarized by Apsnipress, 47.2 percent said they will vote for Bagapsh, 39.6 percent for Khadjimba, 9.1 percent for former Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba, 3.4 percent for former presidential adviser and Prime Minister Anri Djergenia, and 0.7 percent for People's Party leader Yakub Lakoba, Caucasus Press reported on 17 September. "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 27 September similarly predicted that Shamba will receive between 10-15 percent of the vote, enough to deprive either Khadjimba or Bagapsh of the 50 percent plus one vote required for a clear first-round victory. Whether or not on Khadjimba's orders, leaflets began circulating warning the electorate not to vote for Bagapsh and alleging that he has already allocated cabinet positions. Some Abkhaz have publicly argued that Bagapsh should not become president as his wife is Georgian. One argued in print that a Georgian "first lady" would be not only inappropriate but a threat to national security, according to "Russkii kurer" on 18 August. The political parties supporting Bagapsh have condemned the use of such "dirty election technology."
If the current Abkhaz leadership is indeed intent on rigging the outcome of the ballot to ensure a victory for Khadjimba, they should not find it difficult to do so given the chaotic conditions created by the election law. The Abkhaz Central Election Commission gives the total number of voters as 165,248, but the number of registered voters in Gali (where Bagapsh hopes to win the support of the predominantly Georgian electorate) is not known with any certainty: it has been variously estimated at 9,000 and 15,000. Moreover, all voters are required to cast their ballots at the location where they are officially registered as resident, which in many cases is not the location where they actually live. (Liz Fuller)
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