Recognizing that China is the rising star our allies are saying no to a confrontation and deserting Bush. The impulse to back a winner spans the globe. Bush who sought hegemony will go down in history as the president who lost America’s dominance.
President George W. Bush began his tenure by warning China that the US would do 'whatever it took' to defend Taiwan from any Chinese aggression. But by last December, he had shifted position, saying that America opposed attempts by Taiwan to change the status quo.
-Am
China's rise shifts balance of power in Asia
September 10, 2004 By Michael Richardson
AS CHINA'S growing power and influence permeate Asia and the Pacific, countries in the region are recalibrating their relations with Beijing to acknowledge its status and defuse potential conflict.
These adjustments signal to both the United States and its ally, Japan, that the old strategic and economic balance in which they were the dominant players is shifting to include China as an increasingly important pole.
The most recent sign of this shift was the three-day visit of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to China last week. She chose to go to Beijing on her first state visit since she was re-elected in May.
The hastily arranged visit follows tension between the Philippines and its longstanding ally, the US, over Mrs Arroyo's decision to withdraw Philippine troops from Iraq and not replace them after insurgents captured a Filipino truck driver and threatened to kill him unless the soldiers were removed.
Washington criticised the move, saying it would encourage terrorism and endanger the position of the US and other countries remaining in Iraq.
Mrs Arroyo returned to Manila last Friday with a swag of agreements from China to expand trade and tourism, explore prospects for bilateral military cooperation, and provide a US$400 million (S$686 million) railway development loan.
Beijing also signed deals to cooperate with Manila in handling cases of illegal fishing in the South China Sea, where the two countries have overlapping territorial claims. They also agreed to a joint seismic survey of the oil and gas potential in the area.
The aim of the Philippines and China, said Mrs Arroyo's communications director Silvestre Afable, is to transform the South China Sea 'from an area of conflict to an area of cooperation'.
For her part, Mrs Arroyo emphasised that the Philippines maintained a 'one China' policy that recognises Taiwan as part of China.
Amid simmering tension between Beijing and Taipei, two trends worry an increasing number of Asia-Pacific governments. One is the growth of independence sentiment in Taiwan, which Beijing insists is a province of China.
The other is the belief of many Taiwanese that China would not use force to prevent independence and the expectation of Taiwanese leaders that even if China did, the US would intervene militarily to protect democracy on the island.
Taiwan's economy is becoming increasingly integrated with, and dependent on, China. But politically, they are moving apart. Recent visitors from South-east Asia to Taiwan, including Singapore's then deputy prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, have noted that there is a stronger Taiwanese identity emerging. More people are speaking the Taiwanese dialect and many think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.
The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of President Chen Shui-bian plays on this aspiration for sovereignty and statehood. He said last Friday that the island's official name, Republic of China, is confusing and that he wants to call it Taiwan during trips abroad - a remark that Beijing might interpret as a new step towards formal independence.
DPP leaders portray themselves as crusaders for national dignity and insist that Taiwan, after 55 years of separate rule, is already independent of China. Reacting to this political groundswell, the younger generation of lawmakers in Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) said last week that they had founded a new party faction and wanted the KMT to adopt a more pro-independence stance to prevent the party from being marginalised.
Singapore and several other regional countries have recently tried to convince the Taiwanese of the realities of their international position. On Aug 22, in his first National Day Rally speech since becoming Prime Minister, Mr Lee said bluntly that a move by Taiwan towards independence was neither in Singapore's nor the region's interests because it would shatter hopes for China's peaceful emergence and for the region to prosper through trade, investment and tourism.
'If Taiwan goes for independence, Singapore will not recognise it,' Mr Lee said. 'In fact, no Asian country will recognise it. Nor will European countries. China will fight. Win or lose, Taiwan will be devastated. Unfortunately, I met only very few Taiwanese leaders who understood this.'
As their trade, investment, security and other ties with China intensify, many Asia-Pacific nations are adjusting their relations with Beijing and making it clear to Taiwan that its interests must be subordinate.
China delayed talks on a free trade agreement after Mr Lee took official leave of absence and made what he said was a private visit to Taiwan in July. Not long afterwards, Malaysia said all its ministers had been told not to visit Taiwan because it could offend the Chinese government. Last week, New Zealand confirmed that it had vetoed a visit by a senior Taiwan government minister, citing sensitivity as Wellington prepares for free trade talks with China, a key trading partner for New Zealand.
Australia, one of America's closest Asia-Pacific allies along with Japan, warned Taiwan last month that it could not count on support if it provoked China. The warning came from Australia's Foreign Minister Alexander Downer as he spoke in Beijing of Australia's hope to develop a 'strategic partnership' with China and negotiate a bilateral free trade deal with the world's sixth-largest economy.
China recently surpassed the US to become Australia's second-biggest export market after Japan. It has also become a keen buyer of Australian minerals, energy and farm products.
Mr Downer even suggested in Beijing that Australia's alliance with the US might not be invoked if US forces became embroiled with China in a conflict over Taiwan, although he later backed away from this position, saying it was a hypothetical situation.
The US itself is preoccupied with Iraq and counter-terrorism, and locked into increasing interdependence with China. America, too, wants to prevent miscalculation by Taiwanese nationalists.
President George W. Bush began his tenure by warning China that the US would do 'whatever it took' to defend Taiwan from any Chinese aggression. But by last December, he had shifted position, saying that America opposed attempts by Taiwan to change the status quo.
The cumulative pressure may now be starting to register in Taipei. Last week, it cancelled a military exercise planned for Thursday in what it said was a show of goodwill towards China.
The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South-east Asian Studies in Singapore. The views expressed here are his own.
Power struggle: Will Jiang step down? By Li YongYan
Sep 11, 2004
BEIJING - Will he or won't he? Step down, that is. And if he does, when will it be? These questions are voiced aloud, murmured, or they just hang unspoken in the air at dinner tables across Beijing as the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) 16th Congress' fourth plenary session draws nigh. It's scheduled for September 16-19. It could be a showdown between moderate reformist President and CCP chief Hu Jintao and military strongman and former president Jiang Zemin.
The "he" so endlessly discussed by inveterate political gossips is Jiang Zemin, 78. He was China's president and general secretary of the party for 11 years and he still holds the powerful job of chairman of the Central Military Commission. In that post, he is in charge of China's 3.5 million-strong armed forces - and he is not even a member of the Politburo (that's the way it's supposed to be; but why not bend the rules?). Given the communist mantra of the party having absolute control over the gun, and power growing out of the barrel of the gun, the fact that Jiang is still going strong tells you just who controls whom.
For sure, it is nobody's business but their own - the party chieftains. The party makes sure that it stays that way. The public is not allowed to look in from the outside. But President Hu has every reason to worry about dinner gossip that makes him out to be a weak figure overshadowed by Jiang. Seen in television clips and newspapers, Hu physically trails at a seemingly embarrassed distance behind Jiang when the two leaders have to appear for the same photo-op.
All this will change, sooner or later. It won't even be surprising if Jiang exits as early as this month after the closed-door session of the party conference, or as late as whenever he expires. For more than 15 years, Hu has been waiting to exhale after Jiang's exit, and by now he must have acquired Confucian patience. Once the eagerly awaited, hotly debated question of who's really in charge resolves itself in due course, the real issue for Hu then will be how to deal with Jiang's legacy, his political estate - and what an onerous cleanup for Hu:
1) The Tiananmen massacre. This is Jiang's greatest debt and debit. True, Jiang isn't exactly or directly responsible for the tragedy. But he obviously was a beneficiary - he would have retired as an obscure party mandarin in Shanghai had the tanks not rolled into Beijing in 1989. That explains why he has sat on the issue all these 15 years despite mounting pressure from both within and without China and the CCP for what is called a "re-evaluation of June 4". Hu, however, carries no such political baggage. He can continue to brace for the continuous criticism, or win genuine popular support by declaring the incident a mistake and take steps to reconcile the country. Deng Xiaoping rode to the heights of his acclaim by rehabilitating Mao Zedong's victims when he came back to power in 1978. What is so difficult about Hu copying and pasting the example?
2) Corruption. There is no denying the fact that government corruption worsened and spread on Jiang's watch for the past decade. Jiang himself has seen his sons rocketing to stellar positions in and outside the military. His sister, once an ordinary teacher in a provincial, no-name college, is now the head of China's Forestry Academy. What is Hu going to do about it once he waits out Jiang's reign? One thing is for sure, though. Popular resentment will focus on him if he pretends not to hear the angry protests. On the other hand, he stands to gain if he sets out to crack down on corrupt officials. As a bonus, that will also give him an excuse to purge all those within the government who refuse to shift their loyalty. In China, authority is best established on a stack of bones.
3) Taiwan. Under Jiang's policy of "verbal attack and military threat", Taiwan is slipping further away from reunification with the mainland. The authorities in Taipei are taking advantage of Jiang's missteps to sell their independence to the public, who are upset, instead of being endeared, by the huffing and puffing dragon across the strait. The recent cancellation of the large-scale, multi-service military exercises on Dongshan Island causes all sorts of speculations. Whether or not Jiang is losing his grip on the People's Liberation Army and whether or not his hardline approach to Taiwan is losing traction within the Politburo are open to debate. In contrast, Hu has an understated style that advocates substance and efficiency. Accordingly, the 55th National Day is to be observed with "thrift", and the 2008 Summer Olympics are to be organized with "thrift" as well. A "Thrifty Reunification", without the costly exercises that scare no one, also makes sense once Hu gains full control over Taiwan policy and the military.
4) Falungong. Jiang's decision to ban this semi-religious sect has turned into a nightmare for him. The harmless old practitioners of certain breathing exercises have never been a threat to communist rule, but Jiang somehow looks upon them as a challenge to his ego. It is his single biggest personal liability as thousands of Falungong members have been imprisoned and hundreds were reportedly tortured to death. Despite, or probably because of, the iron-fisted crackdown inside China, the sect is growing in strength elsewhere in the world and has fought back with demonstrations and lawsuits wherever possible. Drawing on the lessons of the past, the group is singling out Jiang and certain individual officials as targets instead of taking on the Chinese government as a whole. Again, nothing wins hearts and minds faster than righting an obvious wrong.
5) China-United States relations. This issue is too important to delegate to the foreign minister or ambassadors. Jiang has tried very hard, from releasing the US spy plane to crooning love songs at state banquets to win Washington's recognition of his being a statesman on equal footing. Apparently he failed, judging by passages from former presidential and first lady's memoirs. But Hu can start with a clean slate. Getting invited into the black-tie inauguration party at the White House next January 20, regardless of whether the host is George or John, will be a cool diplomatic coup. Adding one digit to the annual G8 (Group of Eight) summit meetings to induct China into the exclusive club would be a substantive achievement too.
6) Succession. This is Jiang's biggest legacy in absentia. Unlike Deng, who designated Hu as the next in line to the party chairmanship after Jiang, Jiang himself has failed to appoint an heir apparent to Hu, who owes no gratitude or allegiance to Jiang. Therefore Hu has a free hand to change or even undo Jiang's policies as he sees fit, which is usually an effective way to obliterate predecessors' prints and establish one's own legacy. Whenever and however Jiang exits the stage, Hu would do well to get prepared, starting with a stock-taking of Jiang's estate and calculating the estate taxes.
A little reading of tea leaves or entrails may be in order here: China and Taiwan reportedly have canceled military exercises. Jiang has been known to favor a tough, uncompromising and militaristic line on Taiwan. A female singer rumored to be a favorite of Jiang was criticized by Youth Daily (under the supervision of the China Youth League - President Hu's turf) for taking in 420,000 yuan (US$50,800) for appearing in a show and singing all of four songs - not bad for 15 minutes' work. The organizers, a city party committee that ran up a treasury deficit of 150 million yuan last year, took the rumor of Jiang's favorite singer too seriously and paid a political premium for her appearance. A joke making the rounds goes like this: The songstress was speeding and ran a red light. A rookie policeman pulled her over and demanded her license. "You don't know who I am?" The lady asked, incredulous. "I don't care even if you are Jiang ..." Then an old man's voice came from the back of the sedan: "Who is taking my name in vain?!"
So what does it all mean? We may find out after the momentous party confab.
At the party meeting, the stated agenda is to discuss "how to enhance the CCP's ruling capabilities" - a good start if they know they can no longer rule the way Mao and Deng did, ie, their policy was always best and dissent was suppressed with an iron hand. But there are signs that the elderly Jiang is bowing out, voluntarily or otherwise. It is significant that the defense minister's Army Day speech on August 1 didn't even mention Jiang as the "guiding light", a common description of the enlightened leader.
Also, China's propaganda is showing signs of change. That criticism by a Chinese expert of Beijing's North Korea policy would have been banned from publication if President Hu had not gained control over the media, which now are laden with "how the new leadership emphasizes humanity" - a thinly veiled attack on Jiang's policies focusing on money alone, his single-minded emphasis on growth and economic development. Already there are articles in the papers arguing that economic development is not everything - an unprecedented criticism of Deng Xiaoping's motto: Development is the real truth.
Opposition within the government against Jiang's retaining the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission is growing. Sure, Deng did that too, but Deng had commanded armies before 1949, while Jiang has never even commanded a squad. So President Hu has public opinion behind him while Jiang has the guns. In China's history, guns always speak louder than opinion. But that is slowly changing.
Speculation is divided: No, Jiang won't quit, because it flies in the face of tradition to surrender one's power, and it is dangerous to lose power since one's enemies will demand a pound of flesh - and Jiang has a lot of enemies. And yes, he will step down, because his followers are beginning to realize that he won't last forever and it is best to start shifting loyalty before it is too late. Why go down with a sinking ship?
Li YongYan is an analyst of Chinese business, economic, political and social issues.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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