Q: I was reading your chars for this week and it looks like tha whole market might drop pretty low. Do you think it is going down? A: Absolutely. I have no reservation in saying that the market is and will not likely rally for this summer, the fall and next year. How can I make such a pedantic statement? I believe that the whole American demographics that WAS being the rallies in the 1990's and early 2000's have moved to a lower level of consumption ... And that's consumption IF there is cash remaining in these individual assets.
In addition, summer retail activity is a cyclical dull in any year's activity. So the potential volume that could have supported any further rally in this overall market is not likely to occur, except some catastrophic event that would call the retail investor to his/her laptop and get out of any long position anyway (rather than adding to any given opportunity. In essence, investors are more likely to react into the mark by removing positions en mass, than synchronously adding into positions)
Additionally, as a rule, most of the retail investors take long positions. With a continued decline in the major indices and major large/mid-cap stocks, that "potential cash energy" that would have blown favorable wind into the proverbial sails is not expected to occur now or in the near future. The fundamental news release, "surprise" data, and a sense that things are just not going to be the way they used to be will keep many fingers off of the "enter order" buttons, IMHO.
Anyway, oveall, I remain prety BEARISH on this or any other market. The interrelation of world market and seemingly contagious trends to pull on sector down after another, and ultimately one market after another is likely to spread even among European (FSE, DAX, CAC) and Asian markets (Nikkei, Hang Seng) for the rest of the year. I would pay particularly attention to the Chinese market which has several issues I mentionned in one of my post yeasterday: a) Aging population, b) aging infrastructure, c) an economic structure almost extremely dependent on exports.
Of late, China is seeing some internal dissenting pressure that are likely to resurface over and over and create its own unease in large institutional investors that would otherwise pump tremendous cash energy into this potentially largest world economy. India, is napping in the shadow of this development and may well be the only US-friendly market that would ultimately provide the US its second and last chance for a world economic recovery, IMHO.
Q: Unfortunately, I got very busy and I did not have a chance to see last weeks charts that you said contained the stocks I was interested in. Tell me.. Are thay still available? How can I access them and have you formed any oppionions since then. A: As I mentionned before, you can look into my public list under and see what charts on $SPX, $INDU, $COMP, $NYA as well as market-sensitive indicators such as $VIX, $TRIN at: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2140281 . If you feel the urge to vote daily, then go at the bottom of the page and releive yourself freely. Voting is good for your health, and my penny-size ego appreciate the gentle strokes. Hey, what's any man's purpose on earth if not that of sharing and receiving love?
Of course, there is mine: "Stock Incubator at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=9498 . Feel free to address comment, post criticisms, and object to anything I say. the only I learn something new is being wrong or proven wrong. I will do my best to read, review, search and report on topics. But it has to have relevancy to the community that I address, and has to have the potential to advance one's position towards profits, either fiduciary or knowledge.
I appreciate your comparison to surfing. If you know the wave, you get the rhythme. If you hear the rhythme, you might feel the harmonics. Things are cyclical and patterns of repetitions are what makes up this whole complex human condition. The surfing board I use almost exclusively to remain buoyant is technical analysis. It's hard, smooth edges, got fins. But as always: Dude, do the due (diligence)!!!
David
-------------------------------------------------------------- From: DRAH <xxx@yahoo.com> To: David A. Alcindor <xxx@yahoo.com> Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:57:29 AM Subject:
I was reading your chars for this week and it looks like tha whole market might drop pretty low. Do you think it is going down? Unfortunately, I got very busy and I did not have a chance to see last weeks charts that you said contained the stocks I was interested in. Tell me.. Are thay still available? How can I access them and have you formed any oppionions since then?
If I don't hear from you to the contrary... I think I am going to pull out of the market for the next few weeks as I feel we will test a new bottom very soon.
Btw, I called the last bottom -to the day- one week before the stock market hit it's low point back in March. Just a good guess based on my research, but isn't that what this buisness is all about?
I love learning about this stuff. It's almost like learning to surf.... Watch for your wave carefully... Hold a balanced position... Be very patient...Scale in forward as the wave is aproaching... Ride you wave boldly and jump off before you get dragged into shore. Cool
Thanks for your guidance.
Xxx
a ----------------------------------------------------------------
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