Replies to post #3410 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Rien]

Toofuzzy, the stop was trading in what is called a bearish triangle. If you look at the three month chart, you can draw a line connecting the bottoms, and another line connecting the tops (both have to be straight lines). You will see that these are the two sides of a triangle, with the top line coming down. These chart formations often precede a drop in price. Now that Astropower has broken their long time support line on high volume, look for more downside.
A bold prediction on my side: this stock is going to trade below $10 before the year is over. A $5 target seems low, but is certainly doable.
You will have to wait a bit before you achieve perfect alignment. :-)


Best,
Rien.

[Bernie Goldberg]

Hi TooFuzzy,
I don't often respond here as there are too many Technical and Fundamental Analysts here to suit my taste. I like to think of this as aan AIM thread. There are also quite a few mathematicians. As I read Mr. Lichello's book, AIM makes all of the above quite unnecessary.
You wrote:I have been following a company called Astropower (APWR) for a few years now waiting for the stock price,my cash, and the stars to align before investing.
Those methods also are not necessary with AIM.
After reading your post I went to msn.com and looked at a chart for APWR. It struck me as having been a perfect AIM candidate over the previous two year period of time. I assumed from your post that a couple of years meant two.
I exported the data from the MSN chart, opened the AIM Bares spread sheet and entered the 24 monthly closing prices on APWR from June 2, 2000 to June 2, 2002. Total time spent about 15 minutes.
Here's what I came up with:
Starting Investment $10,000
Starting Stock Value $6,700
Starting Cash Value $3,300
Ending stock Value $7,136
Ending Cash Value $5,778
Ending Portfolio Value $12,914
You would have started with 371 shares of APWR and have 364 shares today. If you send me your e-mail address I would be happy to send you a copy of the Spreadsheet.
This looks to me like a 29.14% gain on the initial investment. Last time I looked the S&P500 index was down over 20% during this time period. This means that APWR and AIM outperformed the S&P by close to 50%.
I don't know what it is that you looking for. If you went along with the gentleman with the triangles etc, you could sell all of the stock, pay your capital gains tax and be way ahead of all the people who seem to be out of cash and looking for ways to make AIM better, or you could continue using AIM and buy lots of shares with cash reserve that AIM would have given you.
Happy AIMing!
Bernie

[Bernie Goldberg]

Hi Toofuzzy,
One thing I forgot to mention in my last post.
The low point in Portfolio Value was July, 2000, the second month of the simulation, when the portfolio value was $8,534.
Other than that, there was not one single period where you would have been able to sell at a loss.
Bernie

[extelecom]

Fuzzy, Have you seen this board?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1084

ET

[extelecom]

Fuzzy, Its hard to deny Bernie's AIM numbers! I took a brief look at APWR and the financials don't look bad to me! They actually make money, not just a product! I see they are claiming to have overcome their Silicon source problems here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020612/phw021_2.html
Who knows when (if) this market will bottom. Tom's IW is showing lowering risk which is hinting of a turn in the market at some point! One of the beauties of AIM is that even if you do buy into a stock at less than the absolute lowest price, it will thrive! We all take the risk of buying into a stock and it immediately turns into a deep diver! I have excelled in this area recently! Wish I could provide more (better) info., but I have speculated enough!

ET

[Conrad]

Toofuzzy OT Power Question,

You said:

For you electrical engineers out there:
I have been getting all my electricity from a 200W photovoltaic system which after all the efficiency losses are figured in probably lets me use about 500W / day (1 100w lightbulb running for 5 hrs/ day).You quickly learn that it is cheaper to spend gobs of money if necessary to reduce the demand rather than the supply but in most cases....

Well, I am nit picking, of course, but here are three points:

1) I suppose you mean it is cheaper to spend a lot of money reduce the demand rather than to increase the supply capacity. Right? I suppose it would be a lot cheaper to get a little larger unit and safe all the money to reduce the demand.

2) Your term 500 W/day is an energy acceleration unit, and this would mean that the energy consumption is increasing each day with 500 W. You mean, no doubt, 500 Watt-Hours/day.

3) With the 200 W system you must mean that the output is 200 Watt. With a solar input of 200 W you might light-up a 25 W light bulb. With the 200 W capacity you should be able to load up a battery for 6 hours a ~50% efficiency of the battery charger(estimate) to get 1200/2 Watt-hours is 600 Wh. So you 500 Wh is a good estimate.

But then it means that while you are charging the batteries during the day that you can not watch TV or do much else electrically, or when you run your 100 W light at night you cannot use a 100 W TV(both for 5 hours), or heat the coffee electrically.

Do you make your coffee on a wood heater? Anyhow, 200 W for a power system is very little indeed. I would probably get a 500 W system with the money you can safe.

Regards,



Conrad