Replies to post #12430 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

[HowardHughs]

China braces for H1N1 pandemic fallout

Editor:Sharon Lee
Source:ÖйúÈÕ±¨
Updated: 2009-6-12 13:21:31

¡¡¡¡The fragile recovery in the Chinese and global economies has been dealt a blow with the H1N1 flu outbreak declared a pandemic Thursday night.

¡¡¡¡Analysts and experts in China said the announcement would have a significant impact on the country's travel, tourism and foreign trade sectors.

¡¡¡¡In Geneva, the World Health Organization (WHO) told members it was declaring a pandemic - the first global flu epidemic in 41 years - as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.

¡¡¡¡In a statement sent to health officials, the WHO said it decided to raise the pandemic warning level from phase 5 to 6 - its highest alert - after holding an emergency meeting with its flu experts.

¡¡¡¡WHO chief Margaret Chan was expected to make a formal announcement later last night.

¡¡¡¡In Beijing, Mao Qun'an, spokesman for the Ministry of Health (MOH), told China Daily last night that a press conference would be held in the afternoon today to explain the latest situation.

¡¡¡¡Zeng Guang, top epidemiologist with the Chinese Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said there is no need to panic.



¡¡¡¡The MOH is ready with countermeasures based on the specific epidemic situation, such as the closure of schools when multiple infections are detected, he added.

¡¡¡¡Vivian Tan, spokesperson for the WHO Beijing Office told China Daily last night that China is categorized as a country with sporadic cases and a few small clusters of domestic transmissions. Tan also said the MOH told the WHO Beijing Office last month that the country has enough antiviral medication and is expanding medicine stockpiles.

¡¡¡¡But it is the economy which looks set to bear the brunt of the announcement.

¡¡¡¡Gao Shanwen, analyst at Essence Securities, said the travel, hotel, transport, retail sales and entertainment sectors will see a decline.

¡¡¡¡"And if consumption falls in other countries, it may affect China's exports, which are already severely hit by the financial crisis. But considering historical experience, the flu's overall impact on the economy will be limited," Gao said.

¡¡¡¡Gao Yaosong, director of the Shanghai Research Institute of International Economy and Trade, agreed the pandemic alert will deal a big blow to exports and imports, turning matters from bad to worse.

¡¡¡¡A series of restrictions will be imposed on the movement of both people and goods, making it difficult for trade delegates to travel overseas freely, he said.

¡¡¡¡"The news is the last thing we want to hear," said Zhang Qingzhu, marketing manager of China Comfortable Travel Services in Beijing.

¡¡¡¡"The government might adopt stricter policies on travel, but what is worse is that people will have greater fear about travel. It will be a devastating blow for tour operators," she said.

¡¡¡¡Li Xinjian, a professor at the school of tourism management of Beijing International Studies University, said that outbound tourism will be the most severely hit, because H1N1 infections are far worse overseas.

¡¡¡¡The inbound market, however, will not suffer much more from the raised alert level, because even at level 5, many foreign tourists had already dropped plans to visit China because of strict quarantine measures, he said.

¡¡¡¡Zhu Mei, a spokeswoman for Air China, said the raised alert level could further hit airlines' international flights.

¡¡¡¡"At level 5, most group visits to North America were already cancelled now, all airlines face a further drop."

¡¡¡¡The long-awaited pandemic decision by the WHO is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe.

¡¡¡¡It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money toward efforts to contain the virus.

¡¡¡¡"At this early stage, the pandemic can be characterized globally as being moderate in severity," the WHO said in the statement, urging nations not to close borders or restrict travel and trade.

¡¡¡¡The WHO also told countries it was in "close dialogue" with flu vaccine makers and it believed the firms would work "to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come".

¡¡¡¡On Wednesday, the WHO said 74 countries had reported nearly 27,737 cases of swine flu, including 141 deaths.

¡¡¡¡The agency has stressed that most cases have been mild and required no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities - especially in poorer countries.

¡¡¡¡The last pandemic - the Hong Kong flu of 1968 - killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.

¡¡¡¡Many health experts say WHO's pandemic declaration could have come weeks earlier but the international agency has become bogged down by politics.

¡¡¡¡AP contributed to the story
http://english.rednet.cn/c/2009/06/12/1775248.htm

[Fishpert]

Here, this guy can give some ammo to fight with.
http://mahendraprophecy.com/

keep in mind he shorted and kept adding to short of copper back in 2005 $ 2006 while it went through the roof. I'm surprised he still has the shirt on his back.

[4Godnwv]

I really don't think world health problems can help the $USD - The US needs dollars to fund a number of the current administrations projects.

To get those dollars we need someone to buy our bonds. If the world faces more financial problems they can't be buyers. China already has too many dollars and is signalling that it will look for ways to exchange them for material goods, including gold.

This does not bode well for the trade deficit (we need those dollars back) and forces the US to look for other buyers. Bottom line those other buyers will more than likely be taxpayers as the FED picks up the tab by buying the bonds itself.

That means cranking up the printing presses and flooding the system with dollars, which causes inflation.

The bad news for US consumers is the cost of everything will rise as the value of the dollar plummets. The good news is that debt shrinks in comparison as more dollars are available. (Just what the government doctor ordered)

As for the markets, climbing back up may not be the hat trick everyone supposes. For one thing, since there will be more dollars around (of less value) DOW 10,000 won't be as tough a nut to crack tomorrow as it was yesterday.

Those holding dollars are going to need many more of them as a result of the loss of purchasing power. Those holding gold/silver will be able to exchange it for many more dollars than they originally paid.

Granted everything will cost more, but wise 'goldbugs' will have more.