Next door to Georgia, Azerbaijan, the first leg of the Baku-Tbilissi-Ceyhan pipeline, is also apparently in turmoil. The infighting mentioned in the following text could be another reason for Rumsfeld’s urgent visit to Azerbaijan.
A sense of urgency also surrounded Rumsfeld’s brief stop in Azerbaijan. Local political analysts characterized Rumsfeld’s trip to Baku as "unscheduled." The US defense secretary’s talks August 12 with top Azerbaijani officials, including President Ilham Aliyev, were driven by "concern over the latest trends in Baku’s foreign policy," said a commentary published in the Zerkalo daily on August 11. #msg-3797873
There is apparently much going on in Azerbaijan that we are not getting.
Azerbaijan is an extremely important country not only because of the B-T-C pipeline but because Azerbaijan borders Iran to the North.
To control, or dominate Iran, Bush has to encircle it: Afghanistan to the East, Turkey/Azerbaijan to the North, Iraq to the West, the South are already U.S. stooges #msg-1263010
-Am
GENERATIONAL CHANGE OCCURS AMID POLITICAL INFIGHTING WITHIN AZERBAIJAN’S RULING PARTY
Fariz Ismailzade: 8/16/04
This summer has been a volatile political season for Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev appears intent on promoting generational change within the ruling establishment. But there are signs that the old guard will not go quietly.
The opposition press has published stories in recent weeks that have stoked rumors of political infighting within the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP). The speculation reached a point that NAP party chairman, Ali Ahmadov felt compelled to call the opposition reports "groundless," according to an August 10 report by the MPA news agency. Also on August 10, Interior Minister Ramil Usubov, reacting to an allegation made by a former Baku mayor, downplayed the possibility of a coup d’etat. "Who can carry out a coup?" Usubov stated during a news conference. "Nobody. There is no such force in Azerbaijan."
While Aliyev -- who succeeded his father, Heidar, as president in 2003 -- seems secure for now, the speculation about infighting and the coup rumor suggest that he is having difficulty putting his stamp of authority on the NAP. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some holdovers from his father’s administration – in particular chief of staff Ramiz Mehtiyev – reportedly have acted vigorously to defend their authority.
The opaque nature of the ruling hierarchy makes definitive conclusions difficult to discern. Yet, some political analysts in Baku believe Mehtiyev this spring helped orchestrate coordinated media attacks on the ministers of health and of education, in order to bolster his own standing within the NAP. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The fate of former the former minister for national security, Namik Abbasov, may well have heightened the political sensitivities of Mehtiyev and other old guard members. In a move that caught many local political observers by surprise, Ilham managed in late July to oust Abbasov, a one-time close political associate of Heider Aliyev. The new minister, Eldar Mahmudov, is a loyalist of the younger Aliyev. The Vatandas Hamrayliyi newspaper reported August 15 that Mahmudov is moving quickly to purge the ministry of Abbasov protégés.
The move can certainly be considered a significant accomplishment for Aliyev on the generational change issue. A surprising aspect to Abbasov’s dismissal is that he seemed not to put up much of a fight. Some analysts believe Aliyev may end up rewarding Abbasov with an ambassadorial post.
As Aliyev goes about slowly promoting a generational shift inside the NAP, factional infighting has flared. The intra-party struggles appear to have intensified in recent weeks, underscored by a public claim made by former Baku mayor Rafael Allahverdiyev that Mehtiyev, the presidential chief of staff, and incumbent Baku Mayor Hajibala Abutalibov were corrupt and conspiring to carry out a coup. Allahverdiyev subsequently was the target of an intensive media campaign aimed at discrediting him. Allahverdiyev’s ability to fight back was compromised after he was caught in a hotel room having an affair with a woman.
So far, Aliyev has concentrated on the generational change issue and refrained from taking sides in the factional infighting. In adopting such a stance, Aliyev may hope that the infighting will prove debilitating to the various interest groups, making it easier for him to place young allies in positions of power. Such a strategy is risky, some observers caution. They believe there is a significant risk that if Aliyev continues to remain a passive observer, the factional fighting could culminate in the fragmentation of the ruling party. Ultimately, the losers in the NAP power struggle could join existing opposition elements, creating a well-financed force that could seriously challenge the ruling party’s hold on power.
Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus politics and economics. He has obtained his masters degree from the Washington University in St. Louis and is currently based in Baku.
Russia Weighs In As Fighting Worsens In South Ossetia By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Thursday, 19 August 2004
Prague, 19 August 2004 (RFE/RL) -- As the situation continues to deteriorate in Georgia's separatist republic of South Ossetia, Russia is showing signs of growing impatience.
Meanwhile, fresh fighting erupted today in Georgia's separatist republic of South Ossetia.
Speaking by telephone from the regional capital Tskhinvali in mid-afternoon, South Ossetia's Press and Information Committee head Irina Gagloeva told RFE/RL that Georgian troops had launched a mortar attack on the northern outskirts of the city.
"The fighting has been going on for three hours now. [Georgian forces are using] large 152-millimeter mortars. One entire family was killed by one of those strikes, by a direct hit -- a 14-year-old child, a 90-year-old woman, and a 70-year-old man," she said.
Gagloeva said the attack was coming from the nearby ethnic Georgian village of Tamarasheni, a few hundred meters north of Tskhinvali. There was no immediate confirmation from Tbilisi.
Earlier today, Georgia said three of its Interior Ministry troops had been killed and another seven wounded in the separatist region. The death toll brings to 12 the number of Georgian soldiers reportedly killed in South Ossetia in a week.
Also today, fighting broke out between Georgian and South Ossetian troops for control of strategic outposts in the region's northern Djava district.
In an address broadcast on national television, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said the capture of those strategic heights would, if need be, allow his troops to "quickly take control of the entire South Ossetian territory."
However, Gagloeva denied the heights were still under Georgian control. "The Georgian side managed to take the initiative at some point," she said. "But as of now the Ossetian side has succeeded in retaking the position. The situation is under control, although it remains difficult because of Georgian artillery fire."
There was no immediate reaction from Russia, which has dozens of peacekeepers deployed in the region to monitor the 1992 Georgian-Ossetian peace treaty.
For the first time since the beginning of the South Ossetian crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday made his views on the conflict known. Speaking in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, where he was holding talks with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, Putin cautioned Georgia about the risks of renewed conflict in the South Caucasus region.
His Georgian counterpart has vowed to reassert central authority over both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both separatist regions seceded more than a decade ago following bloody conflicts with Tbilisi.
Saakashvili in the past has pledged to resolve Georgia's sovereignty disputes peacefully. Putin yesterday urged the Georgian leader to honor that promise. "We are particularly concerned by the explosive developments around South Ossetia and the similarly explosive situation that prevails around Abkhazia," Putin said. "[President Kuchma and I] agree that what is important, now more than ever, is for the sides to be ready to solve their disputes through peaceful means. Threats can only lead to a stalemate. This is the reason why it is important that the negotiation process continue with a view to creating an atmosphere of trust and preserving peace and stability. Russia will do its utmost to foster this process."
Putin also issued a strong warning, saying any attempt at forcefully regaining control over either or both of the breakaway regions may reignite old conflicts. "Let's remind ourselves how these conflicts broke out. These conflicts broke out in the late 1980s-early 1990s, after the demise of the Soviet Union, when newly independent Georgia suddenly abolished the autonomous status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia," he said. "This stupid decision paved the way for those interethnic conflicts. What we see today is a repetition of what happened in the early 1990s." Unlike that of South Ossetia, Georgia never formally abolished Abkhazia's autonomous status.
Both Georgia and South Ossetia deny responsibility for the violence, saying their troops have only acted when forced to return enemy fire. Both sides also blame rogue elements -- so-called third forces -- for triggering the clashes.
For Georgia, this "third force" includes both Russian peacekeepers and armed mercenaries allegedly hired by South Ossetia. But for the separatist leadership and Russian peacekeepers stationed in the area, the third force is represented by the thousands of Georgian Interior Ministry troops dispatched to the region last June -- officially to combat local smuggling rings and protect Georgian villages from alleged South Ossetian ethnic-cleansing plans.
In remarks broadcast on the Tbilisi-based Rustavi-2 private television station, Georgian Interior Minister Irakli Okruashvili said today his troops had killed eight Cossacks during the assault on strategic outposts in the Djava district. Okruashvili's claims could not be independently confirmed.
Russia's "Nezavisimaya gazeta" daily this week published an interview with a Don Cossack leader, Ataman Nikolai Kozitsyn, who admitted that his troops were operating in South Ossetia.
Georgia reacted strongly to the article, demanding yesterday that Moscow take steps to prevent armed mercenaries from entering the separatist region. A statement posted on the Georgian Foreign Ministry website says Russia is "responsible for all illegal acts committed by its citizens against a sovereign state."
Many in Tbilisi are wary that Moscow, which has been a strong supporter of South Ossetia in the past, will adopt a similar stance in the current conflict.
In an interview yesterday with the French-based EuroNews TV channel, Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili blamed what she called "conservative circles" in Russia with seeking to meddle in regional affairs. But she said Tbilisi is still willing to maintain neighborly relations with Moscow.
Under the rule of longtime Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, relations between the two capitals were characterized by mutual mistrust.
But bilateral ties have improved significantly since the recent change of leadership in Tbilisi. Russia last November helped Saakashvili's rise to power by securing Shevardnadze's resignation. Earlier this year, it helped Georgia reassert control over its unruly autonomous republic of Adjara.
Tbilisi and Moscow have resumed work on a friendship and cooperation treaty designed to replace a similar 1994 accord that Russian lawmakers never ratified. The treaty was due to be finalized within weeks, in time for Putin's first official visit to Georgia tentatively scheduled for this fall.
But the Russian leader yesterday said developments in South Ossetia will make it impossible for him to proceed with the planned visit. "We discussed this possibility with [our] Georgian colleagues," he said. "However, given the tense situation [in South Ossetia], I believe such a trip would be inappropriate under the present circumstances."
Georgia's top political leaders, who reportedly spent the night discussing the situation in South Ossetia, have yet to react to Putin's announcement.
Tbilisi, meanwhile, is continuing to press for an internationalization of its dispute with South Ossetia. Moscow has bluntly rejected the idea.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday said the four-party Joint Control Commission (JCC), set up to monitor the 1992 peace treaty and a Russian-led peacekeeping force in the area, was sufficient to help both sides reach a compromise.
"New international forums are usually convened either when there is no settlement mechanism, or when the existing mechanisms do not work -- as is notably the case in Iraq. With regard to South Ossetia, settlement mechanisms do exist. Those are the JCC and the peacekeeping forces. These mechanisms work. In these circumstances, one should not look ahead to convening a new forum, but rather to implementing those agreements that are being reached in the framework of existing forums," Lavrov said.
A JCC meeting took place yesterday in Tskhinvali, in a bid to arrange a hypothetical meeting between Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania and South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity. Participants also agreed on a prisoner swap that took place early on today.
HAS THE 'THIRD FORCE' IN SOUTH OSSETIA FINALLY BEEN NEUTRALIZED?
20 August 2004, Volume 7, Number 32
In a dawn assault on 19 August led by Interior Minister Irakli Okruashvili, Georgian Interior Ministry forces stormed and occupied three strategic hills overlooking the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, Georgian and Russian media reported.
Interfax quoted Georgian Minister for Conflict Resolution Giorgi Khaindrava as saying on 19 August that the Georgian assault was originally intended as a joint operation with South Ossetian participation to neutralize the so-called "third force" operating in the conflict zone, a force that is not subordinate to the South Ossetian authorities. Khaindrava said the South Ossetians subsequently declined to take part in that operation.
The agreement on conducting a joint operation to neutralize the third force was reached during talks between Georgian Defense Minister Giorgi Baramidze and his South Ossetian counterpart Anatolii Barankevich earlier this week, Caucasus Press reported on 17 August. ITAR-TASS quoted Baramidze as saying this force consists of "15-20 well-trained and well-equipped men whose assignment is to carry out regular attacks on the Georgian side and thus prevent the parties from fulfilling the cease-fire agreement." Georgian Deputy State Security Minister Gigi Ugulava told Caucasus Press on 17 August that the third force consists of mercenaries from the North Caucasus, while "Izvestiya" on 18 August quoted Georgian State Security Minister Vano Merabishvili as affirming that the third force consists of Ossetian units. Neither Georgian nor South Ossetian officials have equated the third force with the Arabic-speaking mercenaries whom each side claimed late last month were fighting on the opposing side (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 July 2004).
Interior Minister Okruashvili denied on 18 August that any third force exists, claiming that it is Russian peacekeepers who are repeatedly shelling their Georgian counterparts during the hours of darkness, Caucasus Press reported. Meanwhile, South Ossetian government spokeswoman Irina Gagloeva told RFE/RL on 17 August that Okruashvili is himself acting independently of the Georgian authorities, and that Baramidze admitted this during his talks with Barankevich. South Ossetian Minister for Special Assignments Boris Chochiev told ITAR-TASS on 17 August that Okruashvili is "a detonator" who serves to intensify the conflict. Major General Svyatoslav Nabdzorov, the Russian commander of the joint Russian-Georgian-Ossetian peacekeeping force deployed in the conflict zone, similarly said on 19 August that "Okruashvili...is the 'third force' that has been talked about so much lately," Caucasus Press reported.
Although he apparently had little military experience prior to his appointment as interior minister in June, Okruashvili, who was born in Tskhinvali, has reportedly personally commanded the activities of his ministry's troops in South Ossetia (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," 5 August 2004).
Okruashvili told Georgian media on 19 August that eight Cossacks were killed during the attack that morning, and that his men confiscated two combat vehicles, two mortars, automatic weapons and ammunition, and food and narcotics. Okruashvili said he would produce the eight bodies to prove that speculation about a third force fighting in South Ossetia are wrong, Caucasus Press reported. Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania likewise said on 19 August that "the 'third force' turned out to comprise mercenaries and terrorists from the North Caucasus. They have been practically liquidated during the night," Caucasus Press reported.
Whoever may have been responsible for the nighttime shelling of Georgian positions and villages over the past week, Saakashvili has moved to restrict Okruashvili's role. In a televised address on 19 August, he offered to withdraw from the conflict zone all Georgian units except the 500 Georgian peacekeepers Tbilisi is permited to deploy there under the terms of the 1992 Dagomys agreement. The surplus personnel are all Interior Ministry troops. In addition, Saakashvili reportedly named Baramidze, not Okruashvili, to head the peacekeeping force. That appointment effectively prevents Okruashvili from acting of his own volition. But it may also be intended to serve a second purpose. "Rossiiskaya gazeta" reported on 18 August without citing its sources that Baramidze bears a grudge against Saakashvili for having transferred him from the post of interior minister, in which he reportedly enjoyed "near pop-star status," to that of defense minister, and has aligned himself with Zhvania who, the paper claims, is increasingly distancing himself from Saakashvili. Saakashvili in recent days has insistently appealed to the international community to step in and resolve the South Ossetian conflict in Georgia's favor, while Zhvania continues to profess his readiness to travel to Tskhinvali for talks with South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity on how to defuse tensions. By giving Baramidze the opportunity to demonstrate his military authority, Saakashvili may be hoping to undercut a putative Zhvania-Baramidze alliance. (Liz Fuller) http://www.rferl.org/reports/caucasus-report/
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